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Using quantitative analysis to make
risk-based decisions
Farquharson,
J.A. McDuffee, J.L.
ABS Consulting, Knoxville, TN, USA;
This paper appears in: Reliability and
Maintainability Symposium, 2003. Annual
Publication Date: 2003
On page(s): 170- 176
ISSN: 0149-144X
Number of Pages: xviii+622
Abstract:
Often the purpose of performing a qualitative
hazard analysis is to judge the acceptability of, or offer
improvements to, an engineered system. Many papers and techniques
exist that describe the well-defined hazard analysis philosophy of
(1) defining the hazards, (2) identifying the potential accident
scenarios and causes, and (3) listing the preventive and mitigative
safeguards. However, qualitative studies alone are sometimes
inadequate for making specific decisions, such as comparing the
relative risks and benefits of competing solutions. Therefore, risk
and reliability professionals are occasionally asked to "sharpen
their pencils" to provide quantitative support to these decisions.
The goal of performing any type of analytical work is to achieve the
correct level of detail, and that is especially true for
quantitative risk analysis (QRA) techniques. The detail in these
studies should be barely adequate to provide sufficient information
to answer the risk-based decision. There are different levels of
detail (i.e., phases) for the frequency/ consequence aspects of
risk. This paper presents the technique used by ABSG Consulting Inc.
(ABS Consulting) for performing QRAs in phases in order to produce
only the information necessary for managers to answer their
risk-based questions. Three real-life studies are provided as case
studies that demonstrate the use of QRA techniques to make a
trade-off decision. Often the decision involves competing risks that
can only be appropriately analyzed by identifying the
frequency/consequence pairings of the various accident scenarios.
This paper describes a general procedure for performing a risk-based
decision input study.
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