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Software reliability modeling: an
approach to early reliability prediction
Smidts, C.
Stutzke,
M. Stoddard, R.W.
Maryland Univ., College Park, MD;
This paper appears in: Reliability,
IEEE Transactions on
Publication Date: Sep 1998
On page(s): 268-278
Volume: 47, Issue:
3
ISSN:
0018-9529
References Cited:
35
CODEN: IERQAD
Abstract:
Models for predicting software reliability in
the early phases of development are of paramount importance since
they provide early identification of cost overruns, software
development process issues, optimal development strategies, etc. A
few models geared towards early reliability prediction, applicable
to well defined domains, have been developed during the 1990s.
However, many questions related to early prediction are still open,
and more research in this area is needed, particularly for
developing a generic approach to early reliability prediction. This
paper presents an approach to predicting software reliability based
on a systematic identification of software process failure modes and
their likelihoods. A direct consequence of the approach and its
supporting data collection efforts is the identification of weak
areas in the software development process. A Bayes framework for the
quantification of software process failure mode probabilities can be
useful since it allows use of historical data that are only
partially relevant to the software at hand. The key characteristics
of the approach should apply to other software-development
life-cycles and phases. However, it is unclear how difficult the
implementation of the approach would be, and how accurate the
predictions would be. Further research will help answer these
questions
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