HR: 0830h
AN: A31E-0085    [PDF]
TI: Modes of Climate Variability Under Climate Change Scenarios
AU: * Horton, R M
EM: rh142@columbia.edu
AF: NASA/GISS and Columbia University, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10027 United States
AB: This combined observational and modeling study concerns how patterns of variability including the El Ni¤o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation- North Atlantic Oscillation (AO-NAO), the Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) and the Western Pacific Pattern (WP) may be modified by climate change. Possible modifications to these teleconnection patterns, including changes in amplitude, frequency, duration, and spatial pattern, are analyzed. The signature and influence of these teleconnection patterns on diagnostics including surface air temperature, precipitation, zonal and meridional wind, geopotential height, storms, and the fluxes of heat and momentum are also explored. Analytical techniques include correlation and compositing of NCEP reanalysis data from two periods: 1) 1958-1998, and 2) 1979-1998. Model data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) AGCM, driven with 1) current and 2) enhanced greenhouse forcing are compared as well.
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (3309)
DE: 3319 General circulation
DE: 3362 Stratosphere/troposphere interactions
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting