HR: 1330h
AN: A52C-0808    [PDF]
TI: A Comparison of the Forecast Skills among Three Numerical Models
AU: * Lu, D
EM: dlu@twister.jsums.edu
AU: Reddy, S R
EM: sreddy@ccaix.jsums.edu
AU: White, L J
EM: white@twister.jsums.edu
AB: Three numerical weather forecast models, MM5, COAMPS and WRF, operating with a joint effort of NOAA HU-NCAS and Jackson State University (JSU) during summer 2003 have been chosen to study their forecast skills against observations. The models forecast over the same region with the same initialization, boundary condition, forecast length and spatial resolution. AVN global dataset have been ingested as initial conditions. Grib resolution of 27 km is chosen to represent the current mesoscale model. The forecasts with the length of 36h are performed to output the result with 12h interval. The key parameters used to evaluate the forecast skill include 12h accumulated precipitation, sea level pressure, wind, surface temperature and dew point. Precipitation is evaluated statistically using conventional skill scores, Threat Score (TS) and Bias Score (BS), for different threshold values based on 12h rainfall observations whereas other statistical methods such as Mean Error (ME), Mean Absolute Error(MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are applied to other forecast parameters.
DE: 2447 Modeling and forecasting
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting