HR: 14:10h
AN: A52D-02    [PDF]
TI: Predictability Experiments With the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System
AU: * Reynolds, C A
EM: reynolds@nrlmry.navy.mil
AF: Naval Research Laboratory, 7 Grace Hopper Avenue, Monterey, CA 93943-5502 United States
AU: Gelaro, R
EM: gelaro@gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: NASA GSFC, Code 910.3, Geenbelt, MD 20771 United States
AU: Rosmond, T E
EM: rosmond@nrlmry.navy.mil
AF: Naval Research Laboratory, 7 Grace Hopper Avenue, Monterey, CA 93943-5502 United States
AB: There are several areas of research in numerical weather prediction and atmospheric predictability, such as targeted observations and ensemble perturbation generation, where it is desirable to combine information about the uncertainty of the initial state with information about potential rapid perturbation growth. Singular vectors (SVs) provide a framework to accomplish this task in a mathematically rigorous and computationally feasible manner. In this study, SVs are calculated using the tangent and adjoint models of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS). The analysis error variance information produced by the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System is used as the initial-time SV norm. These VAR SVs are compared to SVs for which total energy is both the initial and final time norms (TE SVs). The incorporation of analysis error variance information has a significant impact on the structure and location of the SVs. This in turn has a significant impact on targeted observing applications. The utility and implications of such experiments in assessing the analysis error variance estimates will be explored. Computing support has been provided by the Department of Defense High Performance Computing Center at the Naval Oceanographic Office Major Shared Resource Center at Stennis, Mississippi.
DE: 3210 Modeling
DE: 3220 Nonlinear dynamics
DE: 3300 METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS
DE: 3319 General circulation
DE: 3337 Numerical modeling and data assimilation
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting