HR: 1330h
AN: AE22A-1107    [PDF]
TI: On the Development of Lightning Hazard-Warning Decision-Support Criteria
AU: * Beasley, W H
EM: whb@ou.edu
AF: School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019 United States
AU: Mansell, E R
EM: emansell@ou.edu
AF: Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73019 United States
AU: Jabrezemski, R
EM: rjabrezemski@wdtinc.com
AF: Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., Building D Suite 208 1818 W Lindsey St., Norman, OK 73069 United States
AU: Conway, B
EM: bconway@wdtinc.com
AF: Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., Building D Suite 208 1818 W Lindsey St., Norman, OK 73069 United States
AU: Eilts, M
EM: eilts@wdtinc.com
AF: Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., Building D Suite 208 1818 W Lindsey St., Norman, OK 73069 United States
AU: Byerley, L G
EM: byerley@theriver.com
AF: Lightning Protection Technology, 2744 E 5th St, Tucson, AZ 85716 United States
AB: Among natural hazards that lead to high-risk situations for outdoor activities, lightning is arguably the most problematic to predict on the basis of currently available meteorological products. Decision makers responsible for the safety of outdoor personnel and reliable operation of vulnerable systems during thunderstorms need as much information as they can get, as far in advance as they can get it, to decide when to warn for lightning in a specific area or to switch to auxiliary power, and when to sound the "all clear". The Lightning Decision Support Systemc (LDSSc) a model-based forecast product developed by Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., uses data from the National Lightning Detection Network and the national network of WSR-88D radars to predict, on time scales of 30 minutes, the movement and intensity of lightning in storms approaching or leaving a region of interest. However, there are no widely available tools to predict when and where the first lightning strike to ground (CG) from a particular storm is likely to occur or to determine whether a storm remains sufficiently electrified to produce additional ground flashes late in its lifetime. To be able to make such predictions, it is necessary to have knowledge of the electric field at the ground within the area of concern. Preliminary results based on output from an advanced storm-scale numerical model with parameterized electrification and lightning suggest that at least under some circumstances it ought to be possible to predict the occurrence of first CG flashes within an area of a few km2, a few minutes in advance. The challenge is to determine the circumstances under which such predictions can be made reliably. This paper describes the model output for two storms, the analysis of the electric field at the ground, and possible deployments of field meters that could provide support for real-time decisions on the probability of first and last lightning strikes in a storm. The LDSS, with this added local field assessment capability, can provide comprehensive support for lightning hazard-warning decisions.
DE: 3304 Atmospheric electricity
DE: 3314 Convective processes
DE: 3324 Lightning
DE: 3337 Numerical modeling and data assimilation
DE: 3360 Remote sensing
SC: Atmospheric and Space Electricity [AE]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting