HR: 0830h
AN: B41C-0907    [PDF]
TI: Simulation of Stream Water Alkalinity Under Scenarios of Changing Acidic Deposition and Changing Climate.
AU: * Welsch, D L
EM: dwelsch@frostburg.edu
AF: Frostburg State University, Department of Geography, 101 Braddock RD, Frostburg, MD 21532 United States
AU: Cosby, B
EM: bjc4a@virginia.edu
AF: The University of Virginia, Department of Environmental Sciences, PO Box 400123, Charlottesville, VA 22904 United States
AU: Hornberger, G M
EM: gmh3k@virginia.edu
AF: The University of Virginia, Department of Environmental Sciences, PO Box 400123, Charlottesville, VA 22904 United States
AB: Models of soil and stream water and catchment acidification have typically been applied without consideration of climate change. Soil air CO$_{2}$ concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter. We simulate this increase by applying a coupled series of models which simulate soil temperature, soil tension, catchment hydrology, soil air CO$_{2}$ concentrations, and soil and stream water chemistry to predict daily stream water alkalinity values for a small catchment in the Blue Ridge of Virginia for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for four different scenarios of climate change and atmospheric deposition change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios except when climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist, indicating the influence of increasing soil air CO$_{2}$ concentrations on stream water chemistry. In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity change resulting from climate change. This has strong implications given the extent that models such as MAGIC are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions.
DE: 0400 Biogeosciences
DE: 1800 HYDROLOGY
DE: 1803 Anthropogenic effects
DE: 1866 Soil moisture
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting