HR: 0830h
AN: GC31B-0177    [PDF]
TI: Uncertainties in regional climate: intercomparison and evaluation of simulations of present and future climate in California
AU: * Duffy, P B
EM: pduffy@llnl.gov
AF: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O box 808, Livermore, CA 94550 United States
AU: Coquard, J
EM: coquard1@llnl.gov
AF: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O box 808, Livermore, CA 94550 United States
AU: Gutowski, W
EM: gutowski@iastate.edu
AF: Iowa State University, 3021 agronomy Dept of Agronomy, Ames, IA 50011 United States
AU: Han, J
EM: jhan@ncep.noaa.gov
AF: National Center for Environmental Prediction, 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746 United States
AU: Iorio, J
EM: iorio1@llnl.gov
AF: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O box 808, Livermore, CA 94550 United States
AU: Kim, J
EM: jkim@ucla.edu
AF: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O box 808, Livermore, CA 94550 United States
AU: Kim, J
EM: jkim@ucla.edu
AF: UCLA, 405 Hilgard Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90095 United States
AU: Leung, L
EM: Ruby.Leung@pnl.gov
AF: Pacific northwest Natiopnal Laboratory, P.O. Box 999, Richland, WA 99352 United States
AU: Roads, J
EM: jroads@ucsd.edu
AF: UC San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093 United States
AU: Zeledon, E
EM: zeledon1@llnl.gov
AF: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O box 808, Livermore, CA 94550 United States
AB: We examine simulations of present and future climates in Califonrnia performed with four regional climate models (RCMs). For the present climate, we compare the results of these models to observations and to results of the global climate models (GCMs) which provided lateral boundary conditions to the RCMs. We find that in spatially-averaged surface temperature and precipitation the RCMs tend to share the biases of the driving GCMs. For future climate, the different RCMs simulated slightly different greenhouse gas scenarios. We compare simulated responses in surface temperature and precipitation in the RCMs to each other and to results of the driving GCMs. We find non consensus among the models as to the sign of the precipitation response. All the models predict statistically significant increases in temperature, but they do ot agree as to the spatial pattern of the surface temperature response.
DE: 0350 Pressure, density, and temperature
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 1655 Water cycles (1836)
DE: 1854 Precipitation (3354)
SC: Global Climate Change [GC]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting