HR: 0830h
AN: GC31B-0195 [PDF]
TI: Probabilistic Climate Forecasting
AU: Allen, M R
EM: M.R.Allen@rl.ac.uk
AF: The Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot, OX11 0QX
United Kingdom
AU: Aina, T
EM: tolu@atm.ox.ac.uk
AF: University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU
United Kingdom
AU: Bannerman, S
EM: steve.bannerman@comlab.ox.ac.uk
AF: University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU
United Kingdom
AU: Christensen, C
EM: carlc@atm.ox.ac.uk
AF: University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU
United Kingdom
AU: Collins, M
EM: collins@atm.ox.ac.uk
AF: The Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB
United Kingdom
AU: Dzbor, M
EM: M.Dzbor@open.ac.uk
AF: The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA
United Kingdom
AU: Faull, N
EM: nfaull@atm.ox.ac.uk
AF: University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU
United Kingdom
AU: Folgate, V
EM: VFolgate@atm.ox.ac.uk
AF: University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU
United Kingdom
AU: Frame, D
EM: dframe@atm.ox.ac.uk
AF: University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU
United Kingdom
AU: Gault, R
EM: richard.gault@tessella.com
AF: Tessella, 3 Vineyard Chambers, Abingdon, OX14 3PX
United Kingdom
AU: Kettleborough, J
EM: J.A.Kettleborough@rl.ac.uk
AF: The Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot, OX11 0QX
United Kingdom
AU: Knight, S
EM: sknight@atm.ox.ac.u
AF: University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU
United Kingdom
AU: Martin, A
EM: Andrew.Martin@comlab.ox.ac.uk
AF: University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU
United Kingdom
AU: McPherson, E
EM: e.mcpherson@open.ac.uk
AF: The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA
United Kingdom
AU: Simpson, A
EM: andrew.simpson@comlab.ox.ac.uk
AF: University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU
United Kingdom
AU: Spicer, B
EM: b.spicer@open.ac.u
AF: The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA
United Kingdom
AU: Stainforth, D
EM: das@atm.ox.ac.uk
AF: University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU
United Kingdom
AU: * Piani, C
EM: cpiani@atm.ox.ac.uk
AF: University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3PU
United Kingdom
AB:
As a European record-breaking summer draws to an end, climate `stakeholders' are actively planning for the future, presenting
the climate research communtiy with a new challenge. Today's coastal and water-supply engineers do not need `projections' of
how the climate might respond to rising levels of greenhouse gases, no matter how detailed and realistic. Rather they need
to know what changes can be ruled out at a given level of confidence. This is probabilistic
climate forecasting.
The correct procedure for probabilistic climate forecasting begins with a perturbation analysis of the model to identify
consistent relationships between observable quantities and forecast variables of interest(this is reffered to as: `mapping
the response manifold'). The resulting ensemble is weighted to accurately represent both current knowledge and uncertainty in
observations and then used to infer future climate change.
Mapping the respons manifold in a full-scale, non-linear climate model is a formidable chalenge well beyond the capabilities
of conventional supercomputing resources. Today the only adequate resource of this scale is presented by the joint idle
processing capacity of home and desktop computers of the general public: this is the climateprediction.net approach.
UR: http://www.climateprediction.net/index.php
DE: 3309 Climatology (1620)
SC: Global Climate Change [GC]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting