HR: 16:00h
AN: GC52B-01    [PDF]
TI: Colorado Streamflow Reconstruction Network: A Basis for New Dendrohydrologic Techniques, Analyses, and Applications
AU: * Lukas, J J
EM: lukas@colorado.edu
AF: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, 450 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309 United States
AU: Woodhouse, C A
EM: connie.woodhouse@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA Paleoclimatology Branch, NCDC, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305 United States
AU: Webb, R S
EM: robert.s.webb@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/OAR Climate Diagnostics Center, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305 United States
AB: We have developed a dense network across Colorado of 60 moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies, 300-800 years long, creating a unique resource for hydroclimatic reconstructions. This network is the basis for collaborative work with major Colorado water providers to develop high-quality streamflow reconstructions for gages critical to water management in the Upper Colorado, Gunnison, and South Platte River basins. The 19 streamflow reconstructions developed thus far account for 63-76% of the variance in the gaged records, and replicate drought events particularly well. The reconstructions indicate that the streamflow variability seen in the gaged record is not representative of the prior two to five centuries, and that the extreme single-year (e.g. 2002) and multiyear (e.g. 1930s) drought events in the gaged record have been exceeded in severity in the past. These reconstructions are currently being used to test water supply system resilience to a broader range of drought events than provided by the gage record. The network of tree-ring data provides the opportunity to explore new management applications of streamflow reconstructions, including techniques to investigate the uncertainty in the gage data and tree-ring models, and the fidelity with which trees represent extreme drought years, such as 2002. The network has also been used to reconstruct other hydroclimatic metrics of interest to resource managers, including April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) and standardized precipitation index (SPI). For future work we will expand the scope of the reconstructions into other Colorado river basins, and in doing so facilitate spatial analyses of drought variability across Colorado.
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (3309)
DE: 1812 Drought
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 3344 Paleoclimatology
SC: Global Climate Change [GC]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting