HR: 1330h
AN: H12B-0973    [PDF]
TI: A western U.S. seasonal to interannual hydrologic forecast system
AU: * Wood, A W
EM: aww@hydro.washington.edu
AF: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195 United States
AU: Hamlet, A F
EM: hamleaf@hydro.washington.edu
AF: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195 United States
AU: McGuire, M
EM: marketa@hydro.washington.edu
AF: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195 United States
AU: Babu, S
EM: sbabu@hydro.washington.edu
AF: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195 United States
AU: Lettenmaier, D P
EM: dennisl@u.washington.edu
AF: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Box 352700, Seattle, WA 98195 United States
AB: We describe a seasonal streamflow forecasting system for the western U.S. that incorporates the following elements. First, climate forecast ensembles (for 6-7 months, constrained by predicted sea surface temperatures) are taken either from the NOAA/NCEP or NASA/NSIPP global forecast models, or from Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) resampling of observed forecast period (12 to 14 month) precipitation and temperature (with compositing to reflect ENSO/PDO states). Second, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model, implemented at 1/8 degree spatial resolution over the major river basins of the western U.S., is used to transform ensembles of land surface forcing variables (primarily precipitation and temperature) into corresponding streamflow ensembles for selected forecast points. Third, for the Columbia, Colorado and Sacramento - San Joaquin River systems, reservoir simulation models are used to produce corresponding ensembles of future reservoir storage, releases, and associated variables like hydropower production. We review previous experience with a pilot forecast domain consisting of the Pacific Northwest, with real-time testing beginning in January 2001. Forecasts for the entire domain beginning in September 2003 are also assessed. Among the forecast products, which are updated monthly, are monthly and seasonal streamflow distributions at bout 60 locations throughout the western US, spatial distributions of snow water equivalent, runoff and soil moisture for the entire domain, and reservoir system storages, operations and releases at selected locations in the three modeled systems.
UR: http://www.hydro.washington.edu/Lettenmaier/Projects/fcst/index.htm
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1857 Reservoirs (surface)
DE: 1860 Runoff and streamflow
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting