HR: 14:40h
AN: H12G-05    [PDF]
TI: Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for Basic Transport Parameters at the Horonobe Site, Hokkaido, Japan
AU: * James, S C
EM: scjames@sandia.gov
AF: Sandia National Laboratories, Geohydrology Department,\break P.O. Box 5800, Albuquerque, NM 87185-0735 United States
AU: Makino, H
EM: macky@tokai.jnc.go.jp
AF: Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute, 4-33, Muramatsu, Ibaraki, Tokai-Mura, 319-1194 Japan
AU: Kunimaru, T
EM: kunimaru@hq.jnc.go.jp
AF: Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute, Miyazono-machi 1-8, Horonobe-cho, 098-3207 Japan
AB: Incorporating results from a previously developed finite element model from the Hazama Corporation, an uncertainty and parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted using site-specific data from Horonobe, Japan. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) is used to draw random parameter values from the site-specific measured, or approximated, physicochemical uncertainty distributions. Using pathlengths and groundwater velocities extracted from the currently available three-dimensional, finite element flow and particle tracking model for Horonobe, breakthrough curves for multiple realizations were calculated with the semi-analytical, one-dimensional, multirate transport code, STAMMT--L. A stepwise linear regression analysis using the 5, 50, and 95% breakthrough times as the dependent variables and LHS sampled site physicochemical parameters as the independent variables was used to perform a sensitivity analysis. Results indicate that the distribution coefficients and hydraulic conductivities are the parameters responsible for most of the variation among simulated breakthrough times. This suggests that researchers and data collectors at the Horonobe site should focus on accurately assessing these parameters and quantifying their uncertainty.
DE: 1829 Groundwater hydrology
DE: 1832 Groundwater transport
DE: 1869 Stochastic processes
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting