HR: 14:55h
AN: H12G-06    [PDF]
TI: Backward-in-time Modeling to Identify Sources of Reactive Solutes in Groundwater Using Probabilities Conditioned on Concentration Measurements
AU: * Neupauer, R M
EM: rneupauer@virginia.edu
AF: University of Virginia, Department of Civil Engineering, 351 McCormick Rd., P.O. Box 400742, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4742 United States
AU: Lin, R
EM: rl5r@virginia.edu
AF: University of Virginia, Department of Civil Engineering, 351 McCormick Rd., P.O. Box 400742, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4742 United States
AB: When contamination is observed in an aquifer, the source of contamination is often unknown. We present an approach that can be used to identify sources of contamination based on the observed distribution (spatial, temporal, or both) of the contaminant plume. Using backward-in-time advection dispersion theory, we first obtain a backward location probability distribution that describes the possible prior positions of the contamination. This distribution is independent of the measured concentrations of the contaminant. Next, we condition the probability distribution on the measured concentrations, resulting in an improvement in the accuracy and a reduction in the variance of the backward location probability distribution. We illustrate the approach for a reactive solute (first-order decay), and demonstrate its applicability for identifying possible source locations of a trichloroethylene plume at the Massachusetts Military Reservation.
DE: 1831 Groundwater quality
DE: 1832 Groundwater transport
SC: Hydrology [H]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting