HR: 09:15h
AN: NG41A-06    [PDF]
TI: Long-term correlations in the atmosphere: Testbeds of climate models and novel extreme value statistics
AU: * Bunde, A
EM: bunde@physik.uni-giessen.de
AF: Institut fuer Theoretische Physik III, Universitaet Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 16, Giessen, 35392 Germany
AU: Eichner, J
EM: eichner@physik.uni-giessen.de
AF: Institut fuer Theoretische Physik III, Universitaet Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 16, Giessen, 35392 Germany
AU: Kantelhardt, J
EM: kantelhardt@physik.uni-giessen.de
AF: Institut fuer Theoretische Physik III, Universitaet Giessen, Heinrich-Buff-Ring 16, Giessen, 35392 Germany
AU: Havlin, S
EM: havlin@ophir.ph.biu.ac.il
AF: Department of Physics, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, 552900 Israel
AU: Brenner, S
EM: havlin@ophir.ph.biu.ac.il
AF: Department of Physics, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, 552900 Israel
AU: Vjushin, D
EM: vjushin@ory.ph.biu.ac.il
AF: Department of Physics, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat Gan, 552900 Israel
AB: Temperature records exhibit long-term correlations characterized by a power-law decay of the autocorrelation function, $C(s)\sim s^{-\gamma}$, with $\gamma$ close to 0.7 for continental stations and $\gamma$ close to 0.4 for sea surface temperatures. Here we show that these laws present a powerful test bed for the various scenarios of the state-of-the-art climate models and discuss, how the presence of long-term correlations affects the statistics of the return intervals $r_q$ for events above a certain threshold value $q$. Among others, we show (i) that the distribution of $r_q$ follows a stretched exponential, $\ln P_q(r)\sim -(r/\langle r_q \rangle)^\gamma$, and (ii) that the return intervals are also long-term correlated with the exponent $\gamma$, yielding clustering of both small and large intervals. We present evidence, that both features can be seen in long observational and reconstructed records.
DE: 1800 HYDROLOGY
DE: 3240 Chaos
DE: 3250 Fractals and multifractals
DE: 3300 METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS
DE: 4500 OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting