HR: 0830h
AN: NG41C-0068    [PDF]
TI: Short-Term Premonitory Rise of the Earthquake Correlation Range
AU: * Keilis-Borok, V
EM: vkb@ess.ucla.edu
AF: Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, 3845 Slichter Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567 United States
AU: * Keilis-Borok, V
EM: vkb@ess.ucla.edu
AF: International Institute for Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac. Sci., Warshavskoe sh., 79, korp. 2, Moscow, C 119556 Russian Federation
AU: * Keilis-Borok, V
EM: vkb@ess.ucla.edu
AF: Department of Earth and Space Sciences, UCLA, 3845 Slichter Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90096-1567 United States
AU: Shebalin, P
EM: shebalin@mitp.ru
AF: International Institute for Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac. Sci., Warshavskoe sh., 79, korp. 2, Moscow, C 119556 Russian Federation
AU: Gabrielov, A
EM: agabriel@math.purdue.edu
AF: Departments of Mathematics and Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 United States
AU: Zaliapin, I
EM: zal@ess.ucla.edu
AF: Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UCLA, 3845 Slichter Hall, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1567 United States
AU: Zaliapin, I
EM: zal@ess.ucla.edu
AF: International Institute for Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Ac. Sci., Warshavskoe sh., 79, korp. 2, Moscow, C 119556 Russian Federation
AU: Uyeda, S
EM: suyeda@st.rim.or.jp
AF: Earthquake Prediction Research Center, Tokai Univ., 3-20-1, Orido,, Shimizu, 424-8610 Japan
AU: Nagao, T
EM: nagao@scc.u-tokai.ac.jp
AF: Earthquake Prediction Research Center, Tokai Univ., 3-20-1, Orido,, Shimizu, 424-8610 Japan
AB: This study explores the possibility of short-term earthquake prediction, with the lead-time months to weeks. Prediction considered is based on the evolution of seismicity preceding a strong earthquake. We have found the following two-steps sequence: 1) Within years before a strong earthquake --- rise of seismic activity, rise of earthquakes clustering in space and time, and specific transformations of Gutenberg-Richter relation. 2) Within weeks before that earthquake --- rise of earthquakes correlation range. These phenomena have been captured by premonitory seismicity patterns previously established in the studies of observed and theoretically modeled seismicity. We have used the same formal definitions of premonitory patterns as in these studies. Change of their scaling allowed us to narrow down the time and territory within which a strong earthquake is predicted. Summing up these findings we formulate a hypothetical short-term prediction algorithm. Territorial accuracy of prediction is considerably increased by reverse order of the analysis: First, we determine the chains of earthquakes exhibiting short-term rise of the earthquakes correlation range. Then, we check for each chain whether the patterns from stage 1 did emerge in its vicinity. If the answer is yes, algorithm declares a short-term alarm. Suggested algorithm was applied retrospectively to 27 large earthquakes: 18 in Japan (M = 7) and 9 in California (M = 6.4). The results are highly encouraging. However the only decisive test will be advance prediction. In conclusion we outline the possible physical interpretation of the suggested algorithm.
DE: 3220 Nonlinear dynamics
DE: 7223 Seismic hazard assessment and prediction
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting