HR: 0830h
AN: NG41C-0071    [PDF]
TI: Rupture Source Identification Prior to the Occurrence of Large Events
AU: * Tiampo, K F
EM: ktiampo@uwo.ca
AF: Department of Earth Sciences, University of Western Ontario, London, ON N6A 5B7 Canada
AU: Rundle, J B
EM: jbrundle@ucdavis.edu
AF: Center for Computational Science and Engineering, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 United States
AU: Klein, W
EM: klein@buphy.bu.edu
AF: Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215 United States
AB: Large, extended fault systems such as those in California are known to demonstrate complex space-time seismicity patterns, which include, but are not limited to, repetitive events, precursory activity and quiescence, and aftershock sequences. Here a pattern informatics analysis technique, formulated based on the physical and theoretical understanding of complex, nonlinear fault systems, is employed to isolate emergent regions of coherent, correlated seismicity prior to their occurrence. This pattern informatics (PI) methodology is employed to identify systematic space-time variations in the seismicity of the California fault system. Analysis of data taken prior to large events reveals that the appearance of coherent, correlated regions that delineate the source regions associated with the future occurrence of major earthquakes, the nucleation zone anticipated as the crust approaches a critical state before a large event.
DE: 7209 Earthquake dynamics and mechanics
DE: 7223 Seismic hazard assessment and prediction
DE: 7230 Seismicity and seismotectonics
DE: 7260 Theory and modeling
SC: Nonlinear Geophysics [NG]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting