HR: 08:15h
AN: OS21A-02 INVITED     [PDF]
TI: NTHMP Product Example: Tsunami Forecasting
AU: * Gonzalez, F I
EM: Frank.I.Gonzalez@noaa.gov
AF: NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way, NE, Seattle, WA 98115 United States
AB: Long- and short-term tsunami forecast products for Hazard Assessment and Warning Guidance advance the goals of Mitigation, the third NTHMP component. Thus, an inundation map for Hazard Assessment can be considered a long-term forecast on a time scale appropriate to the history of tsunami attacks in the area, typically on the order of years to decades. Inundation maps are used by State and local officials to develop Mitigation tools that include evacuation maps, public workshops, educational brochures, and other outreach programs. Short-term tsunami forecasts provide Warning Guidance on time scales appropriate to tsunami travel time from the source region to coastal communities, typically on the order of minutes to hours. Such tsunami forecasts help improve the accuracy and reliability of warnings issued by NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers. Observational technology and numerical modeling technology are both critical to development of these products -- inundation maps are produced by numerical models that must be tested and improved through case studies that include field measurements; short-term tsunami forecast systems must integrate real-time data with numerical simulations. This presentation will provide an overview of the methodologies used in these products, the progress and accomplishments thus far, and future plans.
DE: 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting