HR: 10:50h
AN: OS21D-03    [PDF]
TI: THE PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES OF TSUNAMI RISK ZONES FOR THE COAST OF MARMARA SEA
AU: * Yalciner, A C
EM: yalciner@metu.edu.tr
AF: Assoc. Prof. Dr, Middle East Technical University, Department of Civil Engineering Ocean Engineering Research Center, Ankara, 06531 Turkey
AU: Pelinovsky, E
EM: enpeli@hydro.appl.sci-nnov.ru
AF: Prof. Dr., Head, Laboratory of Hydrophysics and Nonlinear Acoustics, Institute of Applied Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences 46 Uljanov Street, Nizhny Novgorod, 603950 Russian Federation
AU: Imamura, F
EM: imamura@tsunami2.civil.tohoku.ac.jp
AF: Prof. Dr., Disaster Control Research Center, Graduate school of Eng., TOHOKU University, Aoba 06, Sendai, 980-8579, Japan
AU: Synolakis, C
EM: costas@usc.edu
AF: Prof. Dr., Professor Civil Engineering & more University of Southern California,, Los Angeles, CA 90089 United States
AB: The sea of Marmara is located at Northwestern part of Turkey, south of Istanbul. The western end of North Anatolian Fault zone passes the sea of Marmara and terminates at north Aegean. More than 30 tsunami events have impacted the coasts of the sea of Marmara in the past two millennium and clustered in Yzmit Bay, Ystanbul shores, Gemlik Bay, Tekirdag shores of Kapydad and Gelibolu peninsulas. The historical earthquakes and associated tsunamis near Southwestern Anatolia are selected from the catalogues (till 1900) and seismic data (since 1900. The occurrence probability of large magnitude earthquakes and tsunamis are determined. The sources of tsunamis might be either submarine landslides or fault breaks in the region. Numerous different synthetic tsunamis related to either landslides or fault breaks are determined and simulated by using two mathematical models `TUNAMI-N2' and `TWO-LAYER' which are developed in Tohoku University and METU for different types of tsunami generation mechanisms. The maximum water level near the shore for each simulation at 50 different specified shore locations are stored and analyzed together for all different scenarios. The distribution functions of the positive tsunami amplitudes for each shore station are obtained. The relation between the maximum tsunami amplitude and the expected mean tsunami amplitude for the region is determined from the analysis. The expected range of tsunami arrival times and the relation between the expected and maximum tsunami amplitudes for the North and South coasts of the sea are derermined. The computed statistical distribution function is compared with the theoretical model of log-normal distribution. The distribution functions for randomly selected cases are presented. The probabilistic results are discussed for the determination of the tsunami danger at selected coastal locations in order to support the mitigation studies against not only the seismic but marine hazards.
DE: 0644 Numerical methods
DE: 1724 Ocean sciences
DE: 1734 Seismology
DE: 2753 Numerical modeling
DE: 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges
SC: Ocean Sciences [OS]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting