HR: 0830h
AN: P51C-0462    [PDF]
TI: Predictions of a Global Climate Change and Cycle on Jupiter
AU: * Marcus, P S
EM: pmarcus@kepler.berkeley.edu
AF: University of California at Berkeley, Dept. of Mech. Eng., Berkeley, CA 94720 United States
AB: We predict that most of Jupiter's large vortices, similar to (but not including) the Great Red Spot, will soon disappear due to vortex mergers. This will cause global temperature changes of $\sim$$10^{\circ}$K. Within a decade, several of Jupiter's westward jet streams (there are 12) will form waves. They will grow, break, roll-up and re-populate Jupiter with new vortices. These dynamics should be visible from earth as the break-up of a circumferential band of clouds into ``spots''. The new vortices will be similar to those that were observed during most of the $20^{th}$ century. For $\sim$$60$ years they will change only slowly, then abruptly bunch together. Shortly afterward, most will disappear by merging with other vortices. The cycle described above will repeat with a $\sim$$70$-year time scale, with many of the events detectable from earth or by satellite. The formation of the White Oval ``spots'' in 1939 began the current global climate cycle, and their mergers in 1997--2000 signaled the beginning of its end. Our predictions are based on fundamental vortex dynamics rather than global circulation models.
DE: 0343 Planetary atmospheres (5405, 5407, 5409, 5704, 5705, 5707)
DE: 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE (New category)
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (3309)
DE: 5707 Atmospheres--structure and dynamics
DE: 6220 Jupiter
SC: Planetary Sciences [P]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting