HR: 09:20h
AN: P51E-01 INVITED     [PDF]
TI: An Updated Assessment of the Hazard Due to Earth Impacts
AU: * Chesley, S R
EM: steve.chesley@jpl.nasa.gov
AF: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 4800 Oak Grove Dr., Pasadena, CA 91109 United States
AU: Harris, A W
EM: harrisaw@colorado.edu
AF: Space Science Institute, 4603 Orange Knoll Ave., La Canada, CA 91011 United States
AU: Yeomans, D K
EM: donald.k.yeomans@jpl.nasa.gov
AF: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 4800 Oak Grove Dr., Pasadena, CA 91109 United States
AU: Ward, S N
EM: ward@es.ucsc.edu
AF: Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California at Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 United States
AB: We report on a recent comprehensive and quantitative reassessment of the hazard posed by Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). This hazard originates from three distinct impact-related phenomena. We estimate, in the mean, 60(+45/-25) fatalities per year from direct blast effects, 180(+200/-120) people displaced per year from impact tsunami inundation, and 1000(+2050/-700) fatalities per year from global climatic disruption. Of these hazards, the global threat is largely associated with impacts by kilometer-plus diameter objects. These larger objects are far fewer and much easier to discover than the sub-km objects that are primarily responsible for the blast and tsunami risks. We find as a result that current survey efforts are making substantial progress in reducing the global hazard, in terms of fatalities per year, and should retire over 90% of it before 2008, but that little progress can be expected in removing the hazard from sub-km impactors. By 2008 the remaining global hazard will be on par with the remaining sub-km hazard and a more capable survey will be required to preserve momentum in NEO hazard retirement.
DE: 6022 Impact phenomena
DE: 6205 Asteroids and meteoroids
SC: Planetary Sciences [P]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting