HR: 09:00h
AN: S31A-05 INVITED     [PDF]
TI: Assessment of Spatial Aftershock Probabilities: a Feasibility Study in Earthquake Hazard
AU: * McCloskey, J
EM: j.mccloskey@ulster.ac.uk
AF: UNIVERSITY OF ULSTER, SCHOOL OF BIOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES CROMORE ROAD COLERAINE, COLERAINE, BT52 1SA
AB: Non-linearity in the generating dynamics of earthquakes which may forbid deterministic earthquake prediction does not preclude the estimation of earthquake probability and, in particular, how this might change in space and time. Recent developments in the understanding of stress triggering of earthquakes allow us satisfactorily to explain the special variation of aftershock distributions following any large earthquake. To date, however, this assessment of aftershock probability has only been by the back analysis of completed aftershock sequences. The power of modern micro-computers, the great number of local and telemetered seismic networks, the rapid acquisition of data from satellites coupled with the speed of modern telecommunications and data transfer, all mean that it may be possible that these techniques may be applied in a forward sense. Here we describe the PRESAP Project which has been funded by the European Community and which reported this autumn. The aims of the project were: 1) to assess the extent to which our scientific understanding of the physical phenomena controlling the variation and seismicity following a large event permits the forward modelling of aftershock sequences; 2) to assess the extent to which data which is presently collected is sufficient to allow inversions for slip and stress perturbation fields to be calculated in useful time-frames of between say 0.1 days and 10 days following the main shock; 3) to assess the extent to which current date transfer speeds are sufficient to allow access to the appropriate data within these timeframes. In this presentation, we describe the main work packages of the PRESAP Project and outline its findings. In particular, we describe the pseudo real time scenario which was used to assess the success of the protocols which have emerged from the project.
DE: 0999 General or miscellaneous
SC: Seismology [S]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting