HR: 1330h
AN: SH42A-0497    [PDF]
TI: Forecasting of Ionospheric Scintillation Based on Satellite In-situ Measurements
AU: * Decker, D T
EM: dwight.decker@hanscom.af.mil
AF: Air Force Research Laboratory, Space Vehicles Directorate, 29 Randolph Road, Hanscom AFB, MA 01730-3010 United States
AU: Pedersen, T R
EM: todd.pedersen@hanscom.af.mil
AF: Air Force Research Laboratory, Space Vehicles Directorate, 29 Randolph Road, Hanscom AFB, MA 01730-3010 United States
AB: Prediction of scintillation occurrence at high latitudes is a complex problem involving irregularity generation and decay rates, time-dependent coupling between the interplanetary magnetic field and ionospheric electric field, and long-range transport of ionospheric plasma by the varying convection electric field. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility and effectiveness of tracing measurements of large-scale density structures and irregularities detected by satellite instrumentation forward in time along convection trajectories for the purpose of providing specification and short-term forecasts of high-latitude scintillation. Given the few number of satellite observations, our specification or forecast for the entire polar region will combine observations with observed climatology. We also need a benchmark capability to use climatology as a nowcast and forecast if trajectory analysis is unavailable. Such a benchmark will provide the means to assess whether the trajectory analysis provides an increase level of performance. We will present examples of convection tracing using variable E x B drift pattern, discuss practical limits on position extrapolation and scintillation specification posed by uncertainty in the convection pattern and temporal evolution of scintillation-producing features, and discuss the combining of climatology with trajectory tracing. We will present examples of scintillation-related irregularities as observed in situ and discuss techniques for estimating radio wave scintillation on the ground from the in situ observations.
DE: 2439 Ionospheric irregularities
DE: 2447 Modeling and forecasting
DE: 2463 Plasma convection
DE: 2475 Polar cap ionosphere
SC: SPA - Solar and Heliospheric Physics [SH]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting