HR: 14:30h
AN: SH52A-04 [PDF]
TI: Forecast and Specification of Radiation Belt Electrons
Based on Solar Wind Measurements
AU: * Li, X
EM: lix@lasp.colorado.edu
AF: lASP and Dept. of Aerospace Engineering Science of U.
of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303-7814 United States
AU: Barker, A
EM: barkera@lasp.colorado.edu
AF: lASP and Dept. of Aerospace Engineering Science of U.
of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303-7814 United States
AU: Burin des Roziers, E
EM: ebdr@lasp.colorado.edu
AF: lASP and Dept. of Aerospace Engineering Science of U.
of Colorado, 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303-7814 United States
AB:
Relativistic electrons in the Earth's magnetosphere
are of considerable practical importance because of
their effect on spacecraft and because of their radiation
hazard to astronauts who perform extravehicular activity.
The good correlation between solar wind velocity and MeV
electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit has long been
established. We have developed a radial diffusion model,
using solar wind parameters as the only input, to reproduce
the variation of the MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit.
Based on this model, we have constructed a real-time model
that forecasts one to two days in advance the daily averaged
$>$2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit using real-time
solar wind data from ACE. The forecasts from this model are
available on the web in real time. A natural
extension of our current model is to create a system for
making quantitative forecasts and specifications of radiation
belt electrons at different radial distances and different
local times based on the solar wind conditions. The successes
and obstacles associated with this extension will be discussed
in this presentation.
UR: http://lasp.colorado.edu/~lix/
DE: 2100 INTERPLANETARY PHYSICS
DE: 2400 IONOSPHERE
DE: 2700 MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICS
DE: 7500 SOLAR PHYSICS, ASTROPHYSICS, AND ASTRONOMY
DE: 7800 SPACE PLASMA PHYSICS
SC: SPA - Solar and Heliospheric Physics [SH]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting