HR: 08:00h
AN: SM11A-01    [PDF]
TI: Linked space physics models for operational ionospheric forecasting
AU: * Tobiska, W
EM: ktobiska@spacenvironment.net
AF: SET, Space Environment Technologies 1676 Palisades Dr., Pacific Palisades, CA 90272 United States
AU: Bouwer, D
EM: dbouwer@spacenvironment.net
AF: SET, Space Environment Technologies 1676 Palisades Dr., Pacific Palisades, CA 90272 United States
AU: Forbes, J
EM: forbes@colorado.edu
AF: Univ. of Colorado, Dept of Aerospace Eng. Sciences 429 UCB University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 United States
AU: Frahm, R
EM: rfrahm@swri.edu
AF: SwRI, SouthWest Research Institute PO Drawer 28510, San Antonio, TX 78228 United States
AU: Fry, C
EM: gfry@expi.com
AF: EXPI, EXPI Suite 37-105 6275 University Dr. NW, Huntsville, AL 35806 United States
AU: Hagan, M
EM: hagan@ucar.edu
AF: NCAR, NCAR PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 United States
AU: Hajj, G
EM: george.hajj@jpl.nasa.gov
AF: USC, Dept. of Mathematics Denney Research Bldg 346 University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089 United States
AU: Hsu, T
EM: thsu@igpp.ucla.edu
AF: IGPP/UCLA, IGPP University of California 405 Hilgard Ave., Los Angeles, CA 90095 United States
AU: Knipp, D
EM: Delores.Knipp@usafa.af.mil
AF: USAFA, Suite 2A25 Fairchild Hall US AF Academy, US AF Academy, CO 80840 United States
AU: Mannucci, A
EM: anthony.j.mannucci@jpl.nasa.gov
AF: JPL, Jet Propulsion Laboratory MS 238-600 4800 Oak Grove Dr., Pasadena, CA 91109 United States
AU: Papitashvili, V
EM: vpapita@geo-mag.net
AF: GS, Geomagnetic Services 8315 N. Brook Lane, Bethesda, MD 20814 United States
AU: Pi, X
EM: Xiaoqing.Pi@jpl.nasa.gov
AF: USC, Dept. of Mathematics Denney Research Bldg 346 University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089 United States
AU: Sharber, J
EM: jsharber@swri.edu
AF: SwRI, SouthWest Research Institute PO Drawer 28510, San Antonio, TX 78228 United States
AU: Storz, M
EM: mark.storz@peterson.af.mil
AF: ASAC, AFSPC/XPYE, Peterson AFB, CO 80914 United States
AU: Wang, C
EM: cwang@math.usc.edu
AF: USC, Dept. of Mathematics Denney Research Bldg 346 University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089 United States
AU: Wilson, B
EM: Brian.Wilson@jpl.nasa.gov
AF: JPL, Jet Propulsion Laboratory MS 238-600 4800 Oak Grove Dr., Pasadena, CA 91109 United States
AB: The shorter-term variable impact of the Sun's photons, solar wind particles, and interplanetary magnetic field upon the Earth's environment that can adversely affect technological systems is colloquially known as space weather. It includes, for example, the effects of solar coronal mass ejections, solar flares and irradiances, solar and galactic energetic particles, as well as the solar wind, all of which affect Earth's magnetospheric particles and fields, geomagnetic and electrodynamical conditions, radiation belts, aurorae, ionosphere, and the neutral thermosphere and mesosphere. These combined effects create risks to space and ground systems from electric field disturbances, irregularities, and scintillation, for example, where these ionospheric perturbations are a direct result of space weather. A major challenge exists to improve our understanding of ionospheric space weather processes and then translate that knowledge into operational systems. Ionospheric perturbed conditions can be recognized and specified in real-time or predicted through linkages of models and data streams. Linked systems must be based upon multi-spectral observations of the Sun, solar wind measurements by satellites between the Earth and Sun, as well as by measurements from radar and GPS/TEC networks. Models of the solar wind, solar irradiances, the neutral thermosphere, thermospheric winds, joule heating, particle precipitation, substorms, the electric field, and the ionosphere provide climatological best estimates of non-measured current and forecast parameters. We report on a team effort that is developing a prototype operational ionospheric forecast system to detect and predict the conditions leading to dynamic ionospheric changes. The system will provide global-to-local specifications of recent history, current epoch, and 72-hour forecast ionospheric and neutral density profiles, TEC, plasma drifts, neutral winds, and temperatures. Geophysical changes will be captured and/or predicted (modeled) at their relevant time scales ranging from 10-minute to hourly cadences. 4-D ionospheric densities are being specified using data assimilation techniques, coupled with physics-based and empirical models for thermospheric, solar, electric field, particle, and magnetic field parameters that maximize accuracy in locales and regions at the current epoch, maintain global self-consistency, and improve reliable forecasts. We report on a system architecture underlying the linkage of models and data streams that is operationally reliable and robust to serve commercial space weather needs.
DE: 0358 Thermosphere--energy deposition
DE: 2427 Ionosphere/atmosphere interactions (0335)
DE: 2431 Ionosphere/magnetosphere interactions (2736)
DE: 2447 Modeling and forecasting
DE: 9820 Techniques applicable in three or more fields
SC: SPA - Magnetospheric Physics [SM]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting