HR: 11:35h
AN: SM11D-05    [PDF]
TI: Sun-to-Magnetosphere Modeling of Radiation Belt Electrons: Forecasting Using Linked Empirical Methods
AU: * Baker, D N
EM: daniel.baker@lasp.colorado.edu
AF: D.N. Baker, LASP/Univ. of Colorado 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303-7814 United States
AU: McPherron, R L
EM: rmcpherron@igpp.ucla.edu
AF: R.L. McPherron, UCLA/IGPP 405 Hilgard Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90024-1567 United States
AU: Weigel, R S
EM: weigel@lasp.colorado.edu
AF: D.N. Baker, LASP/Univ. of Colorado 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303-7814 United States
AU: Rigler, E J
EM: Jrigler@lasp.colorado.edu
AF: D.N. Baker, LASP/Univ. of Colorado 1234 Innovation Drive, Boulder, CO 80303-7814 United States
AU: Vassiliadis, D
EM: vassi@electra.gsfc.nasa.gov
AF: D. Vassiliadis, GSFC/Code 692 Lab for Extraterrest. Physics, Greenbelt, MD 20771 United States
AU: Arge, C
EM: nick.arge@noaa.gov
AF: C. Arge, NOAA/Space Environment Ctr. 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305 United States
AB: An important space weather threat is associated with very high energy electrons trapped in Earth's outer Van Allen zone. Past work has shown that radiation belt electron fluxes are highly dependent on the solar wind speed (V$_{SW}$). Generally, when V$_{SW}$. goes above 500km/s, the radiation belt electron fluxes increase substantially. We have used the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) method to predict the solar wind speed near Earth's orbit based upon solar surface measurements. This approach gives a predicted solar wind time series with a lead-time of two to three days. This forecasted solar wind speed is then convolved with linear and nonlinear filters in order to provide a predicted flux of electrons at various spatial locations throughout the outer radiation belt. We compare predicted and measured electron fluxes in order to assess the prediction efficiency and available lead times for this forecasting tool. We also compare forecasts based on the WSA method with results obtained by convolving filters with solar wind speeds measured by ACE sensors at the L1 point just upstream of the Earth.
DE: 2720 Energetic particles, trapped
DE: 2740 Magnetospheric configuration and dynamics
DE: 2753 Numerical modeling
DE: 2784 Solar wind/magnetosphere interactions
SC: SPA - Magnetospheric Physics [SM]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting