HR: 14:40h
AN: T42C-05 INVITED     [PDF]
TI: Earthquake Recurrence along the Kuril Trench: A New View from Paleoseismology
AU: * Satake, K
EM: kenji.satake@aist.go.jp
AF: Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, 1-1-1 Higashi, Tsukuba, Ibr 305-8567 Japan
AU: Nanayama, F
EM: nanayama-f@aist.go.jp
AF: Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, 1-1-1 Higashi, Tsukuba, Ibr 305-8567 Japan
AB: Paleoseismological data along the Pacific coast of eastern Hokkaido indicate that unusual earthquakes have repeated at about 500 year interval with the most recent event in the 17th century. Along the Kuril trench, interplate earthquakes with rupture length of 100-200 km occurred in 1952 (Mw 8.1) and 1973 (Mw 7.8), as well as 1843 (M 8.0) and 1894 (M 7.9), which have been considered characteristics of this subduction zone. We review paleoseismological data, examine coastal deformation and tsunami inundation from fault models, and propose a model of earthquake recurrence in the Kuril subduction zone. Pleistocene marine terraces on the Pacific coast show slight net uplift, at an average of 0.1-0.4 mm/yr in the past several hundred thousand years, whereas tide-gauge data show gradual subsidence of 8-9 mm/yr since 1900. Infrequent unusual event (Armageddon) has been inferred (Ikeda, 1996) to resolve this conflict. Holocene stratigraphic and microfossil studies have indicated sea-level changes in the last 3 ka (e.g., Sawai, 2001). Each event is marked by an abrupt upward change from brackish bay deposits to freshwater peat. The youngest change has been dated in the 17th century with an estimated uplift amount of 0.5-1m (Atwater et al., 2003). Such evidence has been found along the 100 km long coast and recurred up to seven times in the last 2.5 ka (Kelsey et al., 2002). Extensive tsunami deposits indicate large prehistoric tsunamis (Nanayama et al., 2003). At Kiritappu, for instance, sand sheets extend 3 km inland, much further than historic tsunamis. Ten sheets of tsunami deposits indicate recurrence of such unusual tsunami with an average recurrence interval of about 500 years. The most recent event occurred in the 17th century. Historic documents in Honshu rules out unusual tsunamis that would cause damage along the Sanriku coast. Tsunami damage from the 1611 and 1677 earthquakes, both along the Japan trench, have been documented along the Sanriku coast. We modeled and examined three types of earthquakes: Armageddon, interplate events, and tsunami earthquakes. The fault extends down to 85 km depth in the Armageddon model, and would cause the coastal uplift. Interplate earthquake fault, down to 50 km depth, would cause slight subsidence of coast. The ocean bottom deformation from the tsunami earthquakes is limited near the trench axis. We also varied fault length along the trench axis as 200 km (single segment) and 300 km (multi-segment). Tsunami numerical modeling from these fault models calculates coastal tsunami heights for the Hokkaido and Honshu coasts and inundation for selected sites where the tsunami deposits were mapped. Only multi-segment fault can explain the tsunami deposits and lack of documented damage on Sanriku coast. The coastal uplift seems to be caused by postseismic deformation along the deeper extent of such infrequent multi-segment interplate earthquakes. To explain the observed uplift, however, postseismic slip larger than the coseismic slip in seismogenic zone is needed.
DE: 3040 Plate tectonics (8150, 8155, 8157, 8158)
DE: 4564 Tsunamis and storm surges
DE: 7230 Seismicity and seismotectonics
DE: 8123 Dynamics, seismotectonics
DE: 8150 Plate boundary--general (3040)
SC: Tectonophysics [T]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting