HR: 15:25h
AN: T52D-08    [PDF]
TI: integrated Search for Taiwan Earthquake Precursors (iSTEP)
AU: * Tsai, T
EM: ybtsai@eqm.gep.ncu.edu.tw
AF: National Central University, National Central University, Chung-Li, 320 Taiwan
AU: Ma, K
EM: fong@rupture.gep.ncu.edu.tw
AF: National Central University, National Central University, Chung-Li, 320 Taiwan
AU: Yen, H
EM: yenhy@earth.sinica.edu.tw
AF: National Central University, National Central University, Chung-Li, 320 Taiwan
AU: Chen, K
EM: dkschen@csrsr.ncu.edu.tw
AF: National Central University, National Central University, Chung-Li, 320 Taiwan
AU: Liu, J
EM: jyliu@jupiter.ss.ncu.edu.tw
AF: National Central University, National Central University, Chung-Li, 320 Taiwan
AU: Chen, Y
EM: ychen@stat.ncu.edu.tw
AF: National Central University, National Central University, Chung-Li, 320 Taiwan
AU: Chen, S
EM: swp.chen@msa.hinet.net
AF: National Central University, National Central University, Chung-Li, 320 Taiwan
AB: Taiwan is located in an active part of the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Due to intense collision between the Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates, Taiwan experienced many disastrous earthquakes in the past. The incessant plate collision means that we will inevitably face earthquake hazards in the future. Unfortunately, occurrence of earthquakes still cannot be forecast, much of this is due to lack of predictive capability. The problem of earthquake prediction has been under intensive investigations for nearly forty years in Japan, China, and the U.S. Yet relatively little progress is made thus far. Our frustration over the surprising difficulty of earthquake prediction problem has recently led to a serious debate within the seismological community on predictability of earthquakes. At the heart of the debate is the question on whether there are recognizable precursors of earthquakes? What could be precursors of impending earthquakes? A multitude has been suggested, but it is not clear which, if any, may become reliable. To search possible seismo-precursors and take into account the strength of our research team we decide to undertake this overall project, called ��Research on Seismo-Electromagnetic Precursors of Earthquakes�� (or integrated Search for Taiwan Earthquake Precursors (iSTEP)�" during April 2002 �V March 2006. It consists of five inter-related sub-projects covering the following precursor topics: Sub-project I - A Study of seismological variations; Sub-project II �V variations of the geomagnetic and gravity fields; Sub-project III - Radar interferometry for detection of surface deformation; Sub-project IV - Ionosospheric variations; and Sub-project V - Statistical studies of earthquake precursors. We then correlate the observed precursors by our sub-projects, as well as by other research organizations, with existing earthquake preparation models to (i) identify any possible, yet reliable precursory phenomena of earthquakes, including seismological, geodetic, geomagnetic, and ionospheric changes, and others, (ii) characterize feasible mechanisms behind the identified precursory phenomena in order to give quantitative physical interpretations and (iii) correlate the identified precursory phenomena with existing or emerging earthquake preparation models in order to lay foundation for future earthquake prediction. In this paper we report the current status and some latest results of the iSTEP.
DE: 1517 Magnetic anomaly modeling
DE: 2400 IONOSPHERE
DE: 6969 Remote sensing
DE: 7223 Seismic hazard assessment and prediction
DE: 8122 Dynamics, gravity and tectonics
SC: Tectonophysics [T]
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting