HR: 13:40h
AN: U22B-01    [PDF]
TI: Oil \& War: Revisiting M. King Hubbert's predictions.
AU: * Nur, A M
EM: amos.nur@stanford.edu
AB: Oil is, unlike almost any other natural resource on earth, not only finite but also irreversibly consumed. At the same time worldwide data shows that at least at present and for the foreseeable future oil consumption rate is directly proportional to the national standard of living. In 1956 and again in 1962, M. King Hubbert predicted, using a simple model based on the logistic equation, that oil production in the lower 48 United States will follow a bell shaped curve with a production peak around the year 1971 and a production level of ~ 3 billion barrels per year, followed by a rapid decline. While his model approach was ridiculed at the time production data to date reveals a remarkable agreement with this prediction: US oil production did peak in 1971 at a level of 3.2.10 barrels a day and has been declining ever since. M. King Hubbert similarly estimated also the future of oil production worldwide - predicting peak production sometime between 1995-2010 (now!) at a level of 25 to 35 billion barrels per year. Current worldwide production is ~ 27 billion barrels per year. Thus because about half of the oil in earth has already been discovered, the world is destined to face more and bigger conflicts over the control of global supplies. Although many economists and political scientists tend to dismiss the significance of Hubbert's thinking about the finiteness of recoverable oil as well as the consequent implications, it appears that without careful management these conflicts could turn into wars much bigger than in Kuwait in 1991 or in Iraq in 2003. It is therefore imperative for us as earth scientist to try to educate the public and our leaders about the basic geological reality of finite fossil energy resources, and the serious consequences of this fact.
DE: 0399 General or miscellaneous
DE: 0900 EXPLORATION GEOPHYSICS
DE: 6314 Demand estimation
DE: 6699 General or miscellaneous
DE: 9399 General or miscellaneous
SC: U
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting