HR: 14:30h
AN: U22B-03 INVITED     [PDF]
TI: Consequences of Predicted or Actual Asteroid Impacts
AU: * Chapman, C R
EM: cchapman@boulder.swri.edu
AF: Southwest Research Inst., Suite 400, 1050 Walnut St., Boulder, CO 80302 United States
AB: Earth impact by an asteroid could have enormous physical and environmental consequences. Impactors larger than 2 km diameter could be so destructive as to threaten civilization. Since such events greatly exceed any other natural or man-made catastrophe, much extrapolation is necessary just to understand environmental implications (e.g. sudden global cooling, tsunami magnitude, toxic effects). Responses of vital elements of the ecosystem (e.g. agriculture) and of human society to such an impact are conjectural. For instance, response to the Blackout of 2003 was restrained, but response to 9/11 terrorism was arguably exaggerated and dysfunctional; would society be fragile or robust in the face of global catastrophe? Even small impacts, or predictions of impacts (accurate or faulty), could generate disproportionate responses, especially if news media reports are hyped or inaccurate or if responsible entities (e.g. military organizations in regions of conflict) are inadequately aware of the phenomenology of small impacts. Asteroid impact is the one geophysical hazard of high potential consequence with which we, fortunately, have essentially no historical experience. It is thus important that decision makers familiarize themselves with the hazard and that society (perhaps using a formal procedure, like a National Academy of Sciences study) evaluate the priority of addressing the hazard by (a) further telescopic searches for dangerous but still-undiscovered asteroids and (b) development of mitigation strategies (including deflection of an oncoming asteroid and on- Earth civil defense). I exemplify these issues by discussing several representative cases that span the range of parameters. Many of the specific physical consequences of impact involve effects like those of other geophysical disasters (flood, fire, earthquake, etc.), but the psychological and sociological aspects of predicted and actual impacts are distinctive. Standard economic cost/benefit analyses may not apply due to the exceptional rarity of major impacts.
DE: 5420 Impact phenomena (includes cratering)
DE: 6022 Impact phenomena
DE: 6205 Asteroids and meteoroids
DE: 6304 Benefit-cost analysis
DE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty
SC: U
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting