HR: 11:10h
AN: U31D-03    [PDF]
TI: An Alternative to NOx Cap-and-Trade Programs: An Exploratory Analysis of Charging NOx Emitters for Health Damages
AU: * Mauzerall, D L
EM: mauzeral@princeton.edu
AF: Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540
AU: Sultan, B
EM: bsultan@alumni.princeton.edu
AF: Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540
AU: Kim, N
EM: namsoug@princeton.edu
AF: Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540
AU: Bradford, D
EM: bradford@princeton.edu
AF: Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540
AB: To address the problem of elevated O3 concentrations throughout the northeastern United States in summer, a NOx cap-and-trade program was implemented that reduced NOx emissions from large point sources by nearly 50%. To determine whether this program has been successful, we examine O3, NO and temperature measurements collected in the EPA-AIRS network prior to and after the cap-and-trade program went into effect in 1999. Ambient NO concentrations as measured in the EPA-AIRS network are lower in the post-cap period in all months except July. We find that the upper half of the distribution of O3 concentrations within the region is essentially unchanged (or slightly higher) in May and June, modestly reduced in July and August (except the highest concentrations which are larger in August), and significantly lower in September (ranging from 0-20 ppb lower between the mean and highest concentrations) in the 1999-2001 post-cap period relative to the 1995-1998 pre-cap period. Except for September, the frequency with which the 80ppb 8-hour NAAQS standard for O3 is exceeded has not decreased. Temperatures during the post-cap period were slightly higher in June, July and August, and slightly lower in September - likely contributing to reduced O3 levels during September in the post-cap period. To explore the possibility that trading, or selective emissions over the course of the summer, could influence regional O3 concentrations, we conduct chemical transport modeling experiments using the CAMx regional model. Even within May-September for a single year, demands for electrical power and hence NOx emissions are greater during hot than cool periods. We demonstrate that substantially more O3 is produced from identical NOx emissions from a single power plant on high temperature than on low temperature days in July 1995. Thus a lack of temporal restrictions on when in a single summer month NOx emissions may occur can result in higher O3 levels. We also demonstrate that identical NOx emissions in regions of high (low) isoprene emission result in greater (lesser) O3 production. This indicates that NOx trades from locations with low to high isoprene emissions likely result in increases in O3 production. Since the objective of reducing O3 concentrations is to reduce the impact elevated O3 has on human health and welfare, we examine the mortalities that result from the O3 produced from a fixed NOx emission in the two cases described above as well as in regions of high and low population. We estimate substantially higher mortality rates from a unit NOx emission as a result of elevated O3 concentrations for high temperature days, in regions of high isoprene emissions, and for emissions occurring upwind of large populations. We attempt to assign a monetary value to the loss of life resulting from the enhanced O3 concentrations that result from these NOx emissions. We propose, as an alternative to NOx emissions cap and trade programs, a system by which NOx emitters are charged for the marginal damage they cause as a result of the O3 produced from the NOx they emit. Rather than resulting in a reduction in total NOx emissions without necessarily reducing O3 concentrations (as a cap-and-trade program does), this alternative system provides a direct incentive to reduce NOx emissions at times and places where they cause the most harm.
DE: 0365 Troposphere--composition and chemistry
DE: 6304 Benefit-cost analysis
DE: 6324 Legislation and regulations
DE: 6334 Regional planning
SC: U
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting