HR: 1330h
AN: U32A-0027    [PDF]
TI: Climate Change and Ozone Air Quality Over the Eastern United States: A Modeling Study
AU: * Hogrefe, C
AF: Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, 251 Fuller Road, Albany, NY 12203 United States
AU: Biswas, J
AF: Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, 251 Fuller Road, Albany, NY 12203 United States
AU: Civerolo, K
AF: Bureau of Air Quality Analysis and Research, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, 625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233-3259 United States
AU: Ku, J
AF: Bureau of Air Quality Analysis and Research, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, 625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233-3259 United States
AU: Lynn, B
AF: Columbia University, 60 Haven Avenue, Floor B-1, New York City, NY 10032 United States
AU: Rosenthal, J
AF: Columbia University, 60 Haven Avenue, Floor B-1, New York City, NY 10032 United States
AU: Knowlton, K
AF: Columbia University, 60 Haven Avenue, Floor B-1, New York City, NY 10032 United States
AU: Goldberg, R
AF: NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York City, NY 10025 United States
AU: Rosenzweig, C
AF: NASA-Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York City, NY 10025 United States
AU: Kinney, P
AF: Columbia University, 60 Haven Avenue, Floor B-1, New York City, NY 10032 United States
AB: This paper describes results of a modeling study aimed at simulating the effects of global climate change on climate and air quality over the northeastern United States with a focus on the New York City metropolitan area. The modeling system used for this study consists of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Atmosphere-Ocean Model; the PennState/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE); and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for simulating air quality. Simulations were performed for five summer seasons each during the 1990s and future decades. An evaluation of the present-day climate and air quality predictions indicates that the modeling system largely captures the observed climate-ozone system. This is established through map-typing analyses, comparison of observed and predicted distributions of meteorological variables and ozone, as well as a comparison of observed and predicted extreme heat and pollution events. Analysis of future-year predictions shows an increase in temperature and humidity as well as mean and extreme ozone concentrations under the IPCC A2 emission scenario. In addition to the analysis of mean summertime temperature, precipitation, mixing height, and pollutant concentrations, an analysis of the changes in the severity and duration of extreme heat and pollution events is presented. Furthermore, through a series of sensitivity studies the question is addressed whether changes in meteorology due to global climate change or changes in emissions have the largest impact on predicted ozone concentrations. The modeling results are also discussed in terms of their application to the analysis of public health impacts of changing climate and air quality in the New York City region.
DE: 0345 Pollution--urban and regional (0305)
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 3309 Climatology (1620)
DE: 3364 Synoptic-scale meteorology
SC: U
MN: 2003 Fall Meeting