HR: 0800h
AN: A11B-0862 [Abstracts]
TI: Daily Simulations of O3 and PM2.5 Over New York State: Seasonal and Interannual Differences and
Comparison to Routine Air Quality Index (AQI) Forecasts
AU: * Hogrefe, C
EM: chogrefe@dec.state.ny.us
AF: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, 625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233
United States
AU: * Hogrefe, C
EM: chogrefe@dec.state.ny.us
AF: Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, University at Albany, 251 Fuller Road, Albany, NY 12203
AU: Hao, W
EM: whao@dec.state.ny.us
AF: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, 625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233
United States
AU: Civerolo, K
EM: kxcivero@gw.dec.state.ny.us
AF: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, 625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233
United States
AU: Ku, J
EM: mku@dec.state.ny.us
AF: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, 625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233
United States
AU: Sistla, G
EM: gsistla@dec.state.ny.us
AF: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, 625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233
United States
AU: Sedefian, L
A11B-0862
AF: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, 625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233
United States
AU: Gaza, R
A11B-0862
AF: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, 625 Broadway, Albany, NY 12233
United States
AU: Schere, K
EM: Schere.Kenneth@epamail.epa.gov
AF: Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, In partnership
with National Exposure Research Laboratory, Environmental Protection Agency, Mail Drop E243-02, Research Triangle, NC 27711
United States
AU: Gilliland, A
EM: Gilliland.Alice@epamail.epa.gov
AF: Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, In partnership
with National Exposure Research Laboratory, Environmental Protection Agency, Mail Drop E243-02, Research Triangle, NC 27711
United States
AU: Mathur, R
EM: Mathur.Rohit@epamail.epa.gov
AF: Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, In partnership
with National Exposure Research Laboratory, Environmental Protection Agency, Mail Drop E243-02, Research Triangle, NC 27711
United States
AB:
This paper presents the application and evaluation of an air quality modeling system designed to simulate O3 and PM2.5 on a
near-realtime basis over the northeastern United States with a focus on New York State. The air quality modeling system
consists of operational weather forecasts from the National Weather Services (NWS) ETA model at a horizontal resolution of 12
km, the PREMAQ emissions and meteorology pre-processor, and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The
simulations are being performed as part of a pilot study between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC)
utilizing resources from the operational NWS/NOAA/EPA air quality forecasts. To date, daily simulations have been performed
for two summer seasons (2004 and 2005) and one winter season (2004). Model performance for PM2.5 is analyzed for intra- and
interannual variability by comparing predictions from these three time periods against both continuous total PM2.5 mass
measurements and speciation data. Results of this analysis indicate that the performance of the ETA/CMAQ modeling system is
within the range of current regulatory air quality modeling studies employing meteorological data assimilation. Furthermore,
there is no pronounced seasonality in model performance for total PM2.5 over New York State, but model performance for
individual species shows seasonal behavior. The model evaluation results also reveal a significant overestimation of the
inert PM2.5 species in New York State. Therefore, in an effort to improve model performance, we present the results of
sensitivity simulations in which primary PM2.5 emissions were modified. Finally, ETA/CMAQ simulations of O3 and PM2.5 for New
York State are compared against NYSDEC-issued non-model based routine air quality forecasts. This comparison focuses on the
air quality index (AQI), a quantity used to relate ambient observed or predicted pollutant concentrations to levels of health
concern.
DE: 0345 Pollution: urban and regional (0305, 0478, 4251)
DE: 3355 Regional modeling
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005