HR: 1340h
AN: A13A-0894    [Abstracts]
TI: Changes on Mid-Latitude Cyclones due to Global Warming Simulated by a Global 20-km-mesh Atmospheric Model
AU: * Miyamoto, K
EM: miyamoto@naps.kishou.g.jp
AF: Advanced Earth Science and Technology Organization, Bussan Bldg. Annex 1F, 1-1-15 Nishi-shinbashi, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 105-0003 Japan
AU: * Miyamoto, K
EM: miyamoto@naps.kishou.g.jp
AF: Numerical Prediction Division, Department of Forecast, Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-3-4, Ote-machi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, 100-8122 Japan
AB: I investigate how the intensity and the activity of mid-latitude cyclones change as a result of global warming, based on a time-slice experiment with a super-high resolution Atmospheric General Circulation Model (20-km mesh TL959L60 MRI/JMA AGCM). The model was developed by the RR2002 project "Development of Super High Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models" funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. In this context, I use a 10-year control simulation with the climatological SST and a 10-year time-slice global warming simulation using the SST anomalies derived from the SRES A1B scenario run with the MRI-CGCM2.3 (T42L30 atmosphere, 0.5-2.0 x 2.5 L23 ocean) corresponding to the end of the 21st century. I have analyzed the sea-level pressure field and the kinetic energy field of the wind at the 500 hPa pressure level associated with mid-latitude transients from October through April. According to a comparison of 10-day average fields between present and future in the North Pacific, some statistically significant changes are found in a warmer climate for the both of sea-level pressure and the kinetic energy fields. In particular, from late winter through early spring, the sea-level pressure decreases on many parts of the whole Pacific. The kinetic energy of the wind becomes higher on center of the basin. Therefore, I suppose the Aleutian Low is likely to settle in longer by about one month than the present. Hereafter, I plan to investigate what kind of phenomena may accompany the changes on mid-latitude transients.
DE: 3305 Climate change and variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 3309 Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408)
DE: 3319 General circulation (1223)
DE: 3337 Global climate models (1626, 4928)
DE: 3364 Synoptic-scale meteorology
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005