HR: 11:30h
AN: A32B-05    [Abstracts]
TI: Large Forest Fires in Canada and the Relationship to Global Sea Surface Temperatures
AU: * Skinner, W
EM: Walter.Skinner@ec.gc.ca
AF: Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, Ont M3H 5T4 Canada
AU: Shabbar, A
EM: Amir.Shabbar@ec.gc.ca
AF: Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, Ont M3H 5T4 Canada
AU: Flannigan, M
EM: mflannig@NRCan.gc.ca
AF: Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, Ont P6A 2E5 Canada
AU: Logan, K
EM: kimlogan@NRCan.gc.ca
AF: Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, 1219 Queen Street East, Sault Ste. Marie, Ont P6A 2E5 Canada
AB: Relationships between variations in peak Canadian forest fire season (JJA) severity and previous winter (DJF) global sea surface temperature (SST) variations are examined for the period 1953 to 1999. Coupled modes of variability between the seasonal severity rating (SSR) index and the previous winter global SSTs are analysed using singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis. The robustness of the relationship is established by the Monte Carlo technique. The importance of the leading three SVD modes, accounting for approximately 90 percent of the squared covariance, to Canadian summer forest fire severity is identified. The first mode relates strongly to the global long-term trend, especially evident in the warming of the Southern Hemisphere oceans, and shows significant positive heterogeneous correlation in the forested regions of northwestern, western and central Canada, while southern B.C., the extreme northwest coastal regions of B.C. and Yukon, and the Great Lakes region are identified as having significant negative correlation. The second mode relates to the multidecadal variation of Atlantic SST (AMO) and shows highly significant loadings extending from the western NWT and Canadian Prairie Provinces across northern Ontario and Quebec. The third mode is related to Pacific Ocean processes and the interrelationship between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and shows strong positive loadings in western Canada and negative loadings in the lower Great Lakes region of southern Ontario and southern Quebec. A six-month lag relationship between Canadian forest fire variability and large scale SSTs may provide the basis for developing long-range forecasting schemes for fire severity in Canada.
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504)
DE: 4504 Air/sea interactions (0312, 3339)
DE: 4522 ENSO (4922)
DE: 9350 North America
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005