HR: 1340h
AN: A33D-0937    [Abstracts]
TI: Arctic Regional and Seasonal Variability and Changes of Storm Activity in Present and Future Projected Climate
AU: * Zhang, X
EM: xdz@iarc.uaf.edu
AF: International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 930 Koyukuk Dr., Fairbanks, AK 99775 United States
AU: Walsh, J E
EM: jwalsh@iarc.uaf.edu
AF: International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 930 Koyukuk Dr., Fairbanks, AK 99775 United States
AU: Sorteberg, A
EM: asgeir.sorteberg@bjerknes.uib.no
AF: Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Allegaten 55, Bergen, N-5007 Norway
AB: Previous studies have indicated a poleward shift of storm tracks in the second half of the 20th century. The number of storms invading the Arctic Ocean has increased, which may bring extreme weather events, cause coast erosion, and impact sea ice dynamics and ocean mixing. As an extension of a previous study on overall storm activity over the Arctic and the northern mid- to high-latitudes, we examined variability and changes of storm activity in the sub-regions of the Arctic Ocean, including the Eurasian and American coastal areas, shelf seas and the deep basins. In addition to the 6-hourly sea level pressure (SLP) data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we analyzed the SLP from the ERA-40 at the same time resolution to establish the robustness of the results. We also selected 6-hourly SLP fields from the recent IPCC AR4 21st-century simulations by the CCMS3.0, ECHAM5/MPI-OM and MIROC3.2(hires) models to evaluate the potential impacts by anthropogenic forcing and to assess plausible future changes of storm activity in the Arctic sub-regions under global warming scenarios.
DE: 3300 ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES
DE: 3309 Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408)
DE: 3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504)
DE: 3349 Polar meteorology
DE: 3364 Synoptic-scale meteorology
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005