HR: 1340h
AN: A33D-0943    [Abstracts]
TI: Simulation Study of an Arctic Extreme Cyclone with 3DVAR Assimilation
AU: * Fan, X
EM: xfan@gi.alaska.edu
AF: Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk Dr., Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320 United States
AU: Krieger, J R
EM: jeremy@gi.alaska.edu
AF: Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 903 Koyukuk Dr., Fairbanks, AK 99775-7320 United States
AU: Walsh, J E
EM: jwalsh@iarc.uaf.edu
AF: International Arctic Research Center, 930 Koyukuk Dr., Faribanks, AK 99775 United States
AB: Arctic storms bring extreme weather, such as high-winds, coastal flooding and erosion, and rapid temperature changes. Recent studies have revealed the poleward shift of storm track and intensification of Arctic storm activities. As an example, this study focus on a simulation study of an Arctic extreme cyclone in early September 2003 in the Arctic, with three dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation of conventional observations plus satellite data. This strong Arctic cyclone formed near the edge of the Arctic sea ice, which had retreated unusually far to the north in the Chukchi Sea. With a central pressure of 978 hPa, the storm moved southeastward and caused high winds and flooding along the northwestern coast of Alaska. This study uses the fifth generation Penn State University (PSU)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model (MM5), together with the 3DVAR data assimilation package developed at NCAR, to study the formation of the cyclone and its characteristics. Satellite data that are used include ATOVS data from NOAA satellites and MODIS data from the NASA satellites. The MM5 model is setup to run at 30 km resolution in a pan-Arctic domain. The simulation period is September 9-13, 2003. Modeling results, including cyclone intensity, storm track, and forecasts of precipitation and other variables, are analyzed. These results and analysis will be presented at the conference.
DE: 3315 Data assimilation
DE: 3329 Mesoscale meteorology
DE: 3349 Polar meteorology
DE: 3355 Regional modeling
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005