HR: 0800h
AN: A41C-0064    [Abstracts]
TI: Forward modeling of regional-scale CO2 concentrations: results from a constrained biosphere-atmosphere model
AU: * Moorcroft, P R
EM: paul_moorcroft@harvard.edu
AF: Harvard University, OEB Dept, Harvard University, HUH, 22 Divinity Ave, Cambridge, MA 02138 United States
AU: Medvigy, D M
EM: medvigy@fas.harvard.edu
AF: Harvard University, OEB Dept, Harvard University, HUH, 22 Divinity Ave, Cambridge, MA 02138 United States
AB: Efforts to predict the current state and future fate of terrestrial carbon sources and sinks have focused on optimizing simplified biosphere models against fast time-scale patterns of CO₂ flux measured at flux-towers, or inferred from atmospheric flask-sample measurements. In this study, we took a different approach, constraining the predictions of a terrestrial biosphere model capable of predicting both short-term carbon fluxes and long-term changes in carbon stocks and fluxes against multiple data constraints. Specifically, we developed a regional-scale implementation of the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2) for the New England Region, constraining the model's predictions of fast time-scale carbon fluxes against eddy-flux tower measurements, and constraining the model's long-term carbon dynamics against forest inventory measurements of above-ground biomass growth and loss. The results indicate that this approach yields substantial improvement in the model's ability to accurately predict seasonal, annual and decadal-scale patterns of carbon fluxes across the region. When coupled to the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), the model yields constrained predictions of CO₂ fluxes and CO₂ concentrations across the region that can be directly evaluated against aircraft, tall-tower and flask-sample measurements of these quantities.
DE: 0300 ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE
DE: 0414 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0793, 1615, 4805, 4912)
DE: 0428 Carbon cycling (4806)
DE: 0439 Ecosystems, structure and dynamics (4815)
DE: 1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0414, 0793, 4805, 4912)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005