HR: 14:05h
AN: A43G-02 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Extratropical Storms and Climate Change: Recent Results and Emerging Questions
AU: * Fyfe, J C
EM: John.Fyfe@ec.gc.ca
AF: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, University of Victoria P.O Box 1700; Stn. CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2 Canada
AB: The effect of enhanced greenhouse warming on extratropical (including Arctic and Sub-Arctic) storms is examined for changes in the total number of storms, and for changes in the number of intense storms, using output from the coupled climate models participating in the IPCC AR4 diagnostic exercise. For the past and present centuries the models simulate a reduction in the total number of storms and an increase in the number of intense storms - with the 20th century changes being consistent with observations. These are robust results, which essentially all the models exhibit. Some emerging questions to be highlighted in this presentation include: 1) Why are there opposing changes in storminess frequency and intensity?; 2) How do circulation changes (say, associated with the Annular Modes) affect storminess? and 3) How reliable are coupled climate model predictions over the Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions where well-known circulation biases prevail?
DE: 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (0429, 3309)
DE: 1626 Global climate models (3337, 4928)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
SC: Atmospheric Sciences [A]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005