HR: 0800h
AN: B21B-1026 INVITED     [Abstracts]
TI: Possible impacts of 21s century climate on vegetation in West Africa.
AU: * Christine, D
EM: cdelire@univ-montp2.fr
AF: Paleoenvironnements, Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, Université de Montpellier, cc 61, place E. Bataillon, Montpellier, 34095 France
AU: Ngomanda, A
EM: alfred@isem.univ-montp2.fr
AF: Paleoenvironnements, Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, Université de Montpellier, cc 61, place E. Bataillon, Montpellier, 34095 France
AU: Jolly, D
B21B-1026 AF: Paleoenvironnements, Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution, Université de Montpellier, cc 61, place E. Bataillon, Montpellier, 34095 France
AB: We use the simulated climate from two IPCC SRES scenarios and two climate models to force the dynamic vegetation model IBIS over West Africa. We use the simulations for 2070-2099 together with the present day simulation and the CRUO5 20th century observed data to force IBIS and evaluate the equilibrium changes in vegetation distribution at the end of the 21st century. The simulated changes in climate affect mostly countries along the Guinean Golf (Ghana, Benin, Togo) and coastal areas of Congo-Brazzavile and Congo. The tropical forest in Central Africa (Gabon, Cameroon) is less affected. Because the simulated vegetation distribution is strongly dependent on the fire regime, we perform a sensitivity study to the parameters of the fire module in IBIS. We also use existing and new paleodata from the region to asses the likelihood of the simulated changes.
DE: 0400 BIOGEOSCIENCES
DE: 0473 Paleoclimatology and paleoceanography (3344, 4900)
DE: 1600 GLOBAL CHANGE
DE: 1615 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0414, 0793, 4805, 4912)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005