HR: 1340h
AN: B33D-1054 [Abstracts]
TI: Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology and Water Management of the San Juan Basin
AU: * Rich, P M
EM: pmr@lanl.gov
AF: LANL, GISLab, MS D452, EES-9, Los Alamos, NM 87545
United States
AU: Weintraub, L H
EM: laura@systechengineering.com
AF: Systech Engineering, Inc, 3180 Crow Canyon Place, Suite 260, San Ramon, CA 94583
United States
AU: Chen, L
EM: limin@systechengineering.com
AF: Systech Engineering, Inc, 3180 Crow Canyon Place, Suite 260, San Ramon, CA 94583
United States
AU: Herr, J
EM: joel@systechengineering.com
AF: Systech Engineering, Inc, 3180 Crow Canyon Place, Suite 260, San Ramon, CA 94583
United States
AB:
Recent climatic events, including regional drought and increased storm severity, have accentuated concerns that climatic
extremes may be increasing in frequency and intensity due to global climate change. As part of the ZeroNet Water-Energy
Initiative, the San Juan Decision Support System includes a basin-scale modeling tool to evaluate effects of climate change
on water budgets under different climate and management scenarios. The existing Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework
(WARMF) was enhanced with iterative modeling capabilities to enable construction of climate scenarios based on historical and
projected data. We applied WARMF to 42,000 km2 (16,000 mi2) of the San Juan Basin (CO, NM) to assess impacts of extended
drought and increased temperature on surface water balance. Simulations showed that drought and increased temperature impact
water availability for all sectors (agriculture, energy, municipal, industry), and lead to increased frequency of critical
shortages. Implementation of potential management alternatives such as "shortage sharing" or degraded water usage during
critical years helps improve available water supply. In the face of growing concern over climate change, limited water
resources, and competing demands, integrative modeling tools can enable better understanding of complex interconnected
systems, and enable better decisions.
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1813 Eco-hydrology
DE: 1836 Hydrological cycles and budgets (1218, 1655)
DE: 1847 Modeling
DE: 1884 Water supply
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005