HR: 1340h
AN: B33E-1081 [Abstracts]
TI: Net methane exchanges between the atmosphere and land ecosystems in the northern high latitudes over
the 21st century
AU: * Zhuang, Q
EM: qzhuang@purdue.edu
AF: Purdue University, 550 Stadium Mall Drive, West Lafayette, IN 47907
United States
AU: Melillo, J
B33E-1081
AF: Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Lab, 7 MBL Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543
United States
AU: Prinn, R
B33E-1081
AF: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Changeý, MIT, ý77 Mass Aveý,
Cambridge, MA 02139
United States
AU: McGuire, A D
B33E-1081
AF: University of Alaska, Institute of Arctic Biology, Fairbanks, AK 99775
United States
AU: Kicklighter, D
B33E-1081
AF: Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Lab, 7 MBL Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543
United States
AU: Felzer, B
B33E-1081
AF: Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Lab, 7 MBL Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543
United States
AU: Sokolov, A
B33E-1081
AF: Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Lab, 7 MBL Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543
United States
AU: Sarofim, M
B33E-1081
AF: Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Lab, 7 MBL Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543
United States
AU: Steudler, P
B33E-1081
AF: Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Lab, 7 MBL Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543
United States
AU: Hu, S
B33E-1081
AF: Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Lab, 7 MBL Street, Woods Hole, MA 02543
United States
AB:
We use a process-based model (Terrestrial Ecosystem Model), which incorporates ypermafrost dynamics, to estimate the net
methane exchanges of the northern high ylatitudes (north of 45oN) for current climate conditions and for future climate
scenarios. yWe estimate that currently the region is a net source of methane to the atmosphere at 47 T yg yr-1, due largely
to CH4 emissions from wet soils of the Arctic. We project that ythroughout the 21st century, the region will continue as a
net source of methane. The ysources will range from 57 to 135 T g yr-1 depending on effects of permafrost dynamics yand
warming climate on methanogenesis due to different climate scenarios. One potential ybias is that we have not yet coupled our
biogeochemistry model with a General yCirculation Model to consider the feedback between methane emissions and climate.
yAnother uncertainty also exists due to the limited knowledge about how wetland ydistributions might change, and such changes
could affect methane emissions in the yfuture.y
DE: 0412 Biogeochemical kinetics and reaction modeling (0414, 0793, 1615, 4805, 4912)
DE: 0414 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0793, 1615, 4805, 4912)
DE: 0426 Biosphere/atmosphere interactions (0315)
DE: 0702 Permafrost (0475)
DE: 9800 GENERAL OR MISCELLANEOUS
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005