HR: 16:00h
AN: B34A-01 [Abstracts]
TI: The consequences and uncertainties of land-use history on patterns of carbon stocks and fluxes: three
centuries of land-use transitions, wood harvest activity, and resulting secondary lands
AU: * Hurtt, G C
EM: george.hurtt@unh.edu
AF: Institute for the Study of Earth Oceans University of New Hampshire, Institute for the Study of Earth,
Oceans, and Space, Durham, NH 03824
United States
AU: * Hurtt, G C
EM: george.hurtt@unh.edu
AF: University of New Hampshire, Department of Natural Resources, Durham, NH 03824
United States
AU: Pacala, S W
EM: steve@eno.princeton.edu
AF: Princeton University, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton, NJ 08544
United States
AU: Shevliakova, E
EM: elena@eno.princeton.edu
AF: Princeton University, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton, NJ 08544
United States
AU: Malyshev, S
EM: sergey.malyshev@noaa.gov
AF: Princeton University, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton, NJ 08544
United States
AU: Frolking, S
EM: steve.frolking@unh.edu
AF: Institute for the Study of Earth Oceans University of New Hampshire, Institute for the Study of Earth,
Oceans, and Space, Durham, NH 03824
United States
AU: Fearon, M
EM: matthew.fearon@unh.edu
AF: Institute for the Study of Earth Oceans University of New Hampshire, Institute for the Study of Earth,
Oceans, and Space, Durham, NH 03824
United States
AU: Moore, B
EM: b.moore@unh.edu
AF: Institute for the Study of Earth Oceans University of New Hampshire, Institute for the Study of Earth,
Oceans, and Space, Durham, NH 03824
United States
AB:
To accurately assess the impacts of human land-use on the Earth System, information is needed on the current and historical
patterns of land-use activities in models capable of estimating the consequences of these changes. New global gridded
estimates of agricultural land conversions (land-use transitions), wood harvesting, and resulting secondary lands suggest
that 12-15 million km2 of primary forest and 4-6 million km2 of secondary forest were harvested 1700-2000. Estimates of
biomass cut in land conversion to agriculture 1700-2000 (including shifting cultivation in the tropics) were 163-244 Pg C,
exceeding global wood harvest every year until the 1960s, when agricultural expansion slowed while wood harvest continued to
increase. From 1700-2000, secondary land area increased by 10-44 million km2. To estimate the consequences of these
uncertainties in land-use history on patterns of carbon stocks and fluxes, we incorporated a set of alternative land-use
reconstructions as input to a new global dynamic land model LM3V. Results indicate that the spatial distribution of
terrestrial carbon and its temporal dynamics are strongly influenced by alternative assumptions about the historical patterns
of agriculture, forest harvesting, and shifting cultivation. Our approach is also being combined with more detailed
information on agricultural management and fire to evaluate these factors, and to generate improved land-surface dynamic maps
for use in studies of carbon and climate.
DE: 0402 Agricultural systems
DE: 0414 Biogeochemical cycles, processes, and modeling (0412, 0793, 1615, 4805, 4912)
DE: 0439 Ecosystems, structure and dynamics (4815)
DE: 0498 General or miscellaneous
SC: Biogeosciences [B]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005