HR: 10:35h
AN: C12A-02    [Abstracts]
TI: Verification of hemispheric-wide winter temperature forecasts based on fall snow cover.
AU: * Cohen, J
EM: jcohen@aer.com
AF: AER, Inc., 131 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA 02421 United States
AB: One outstanding issue in seasonal climate prediction is whether there is any robust predictability beyond ENSO dynamics. We have operationally produced real-time winter forecast for the US based on fall Eurasian snow cover for the past six years. Operational forecasts have been expanded to include Europe for the past two years and East Asia this past winter. Here we assess the skill of these forecasts, up through the most recent winter season. Particular successes are shown for the US for the past four winters and for Europe over the past two. These snow-based forecasts appear to provide considerable additional information beyond the standard-ENSO based forecasts.
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 1620 Climate dynamics (0429, 3309)
DE: 3322 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218, 1631, 1843)
DE: 3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504)
DE: 3362 Stratosphere/troposphere interactions
SC: Cryosphere [C]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005