HR: 0800h
AN: C31A-1105    [Abstracts]
TI: Simulating the Permafrost Distribution on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska
AU: * Busey, R
EM: fnrcb1@uaf.edu
AF: Water and Environmental Research Center, Institute of Northern Engineering P.O. Box 755860 437 Duckering Building University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775 United States
AU: Hinzman, L D
C31A-1105 AF: Water and Environmental Research Center, Institute of Northern Engineering P.O. Box 755860 437 Duckering Building University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775 United States
AU: Yoshikawa, K
C31A-1105 AF: Water and Environmental Research Center, Institute of Northern Engineering P.O. Box 755860 437 Duckering Building University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775 United States
AU: Liston, G E
C31A-1105 AF: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 United States
AB: Permafrost extent has been estimated using an equivalent latitude / elevation model based upon good climate, terrain and soil property data. This research extends a previously developed model to a relatively data sparse region. We are applying the general equivalent attitude model developed for Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed over the much larger area of the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. This region of sub-Arctic Alaska is a proxy for a warmer Arctic due to the broad expanses of tussock tundra, invading shrubs and fragile permafrost with average temperatures just below freezing. The equivalent latitude model combines elevation, slope, and aspect with snow cover, where the snow cover distribution was defined using MicroMet and SnowModel. Source data for the distributed snow model came from meteorological stations across the Seward Peninsula from the National Weather Service, SNOTEL, RAWS, and our own stations. Simulations of permafrost extent will enable us to compare the current distribution to that existing during past climates and estimate the future state of permafrost on the Seward Peninsula. The broadest impacts to the terrestrial arctic regions will result through consequent effects of changing permafrost structure and extent. As the climate differentially warms in summer and winter, the permafrost will become warmer, the active layer (the layer of soil above the permafrost that annually experiences freeze and thaw) will become thicker, the lower boundary of permafrost will become shallower and permafrost extent will decrease in area. These simple structural changes will affect every aspect of the surface water and energy balances. As permafrost extent decreases, there is more infiltration to groundwater. This has significant impacts on large and small scales.
DE: 0702 Permafrost (0475)
DE: 0772 Distribution
DE: 0798 Modeling
DE: 1863 Snow and ice (0736, 0738, 0776, 1827)
SC: Cryosphere [C]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005