HR: 0800h
AN: G11A-1175    [Abstracts]
TI: Near-real-time forecasting of lava flow hazards: using infrared satellite data to drive cellular automata flow simulations
AU: * Wright, R
EM: wright@higp.hawaii.edu
AF: Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822 United States
AU: Garbeil, H
EM: harold@higp.hawaii.edu
AF: Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822 United States
AU: Harris, A J
EM: harris@higp.hawaii.edu
AF: Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822 United States
AU: Flynn, L P
EM: flynn@higp.hawaii.edu
AF: Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology, 1680 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96822 United States
AB: Timely predictions of the areas likely to be inundated by lava flows are of obvious interest to hazard managers during a volcanic eruption. Many factors combine to determine how far lava will flow. However, for a given composition, the lava effusion rate (i.e. the volumetric flux of lava from the vent) is the principal factor controlling final flow dimensions. As such, simulations that take into account the way in which effusion rate changes during an eruption, and how this influences the spread of lava as a function of time, are of special interest, particularly as effusion rates can be highly variable. To this end, we are developing a software tool that will use near-real-time infrared satellite data acquired by NASA's Terra and Aqua MODIS sensors to drive numerical simulations of lava flow paths. The use of cellular automata (CA) methods for forecasting lava flow inundation is well established, and several algorithms have been presented in the literature. CA models generally require a) a knowledge of the chemical composition of the lava (as this places constraints on the eruption temperature of the lava and the relationships between temperature and viscosity and temperature and yield strength, which are used to compute the rate at which the lava solidifies), b) a digital representation of the topography over which the lava is to be emplaced, c) the location of the eruptive vent, and d) an estimate of the lava effusion rate. During a hypothetical eruption a, b, and c are likely to be easily constrained or known a priori. Conversely, lava effusion rates can vary by orders of magnitude over a matter of hours, and are difficult to determine in-situ. However, lava eruption rates can be estimated using thermal infrared satellite data. As they can be obtained from low spatial/high temporal resolution remote sensing data ( e.g. MODIS, AVHRR), such effusion rates can be determined at regular intervals (i.e. up to four times per day) during an eruption. The system will use satellite-derived estimates of lava eruption rates, calculated in near-real-time, using data provided by HIGP's MODVOLC thermal monitoring system, which monitors and records thermal emission from all of Earth's active and potentially active volcanoes. These time-varying eruption rates will be used to drive lava flow simulations using an off-the-shelf cellular automata algorithm. We will describe and demonstrate the operation of this system by using a retrospective analysis of several recent lava flow-forming eruptions at Mount Etna, Sicily.
UR: http://modis.higp.hawaii.edu
DE: 8414 Eruption mechanisms and flow emplacement
DE: 8419 Volcano monitoring (7280)
DE: 8485 Remote sensing of volcanoes
DE: 8488 Volcanic hazards and risks
SC: Geodesy [G]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005