HR: 1340h
AN: GC13B-1231    [Abstracts]
TI: Simple Climate-Economy Models: Transparent Tools for Policy-Making or Opaque Screen Hiding Methodological Arbitrariness?
AU: * Fussel, H
EM: fuessel@stanford.edu
AF: Stanford University, Center for Environmental Science and Policy, 616 Serra St, Stanford, CA 94305 United States
AB: Simple climate-economy models are still being used for climate policy analysis, despite the limitations associated with their lack of regional and process detail. The main argument brought forward in favor of these models is their relative transparency, which should enable researchers to easily interpret the simulation results and adapt the model design to their specific research interests. % We investigate to which degree this claim is supported in the case of the DICE model, arguably one of the simplest and most widely used global climate-economy models ever developed. We discuss the calibration of uncertain properties of the climate system, the use of different welfare metrics, the handling of time discounting, and assumptions about the evolution of carbon abatement costs over time. % The unsettling conclusion of our reanalysis is that each of these aspects has been treated inadequately or inconsistently in previous studies, either by the model developers themselves or by other scholars adapting the original model. The discovered flaws are not only of theoretical interest; they can also strongly affect the policy recommendations drawn from the simulation results. This conclusion is particularly disturbing given that DICE has been publicly available for many years, and that this model has been used and adapted by many scholars during this time. % As a consequence of these findings, we call for more caution in the development, application, and modification of simple climate-economy models, and in the interpretation of their results. The combined efforts of original model developers, other scientists applying and adopting an existing model, and peer reviewers are required to ensure that the model application is scientifically sound, and that the policy conclusions drawn from a particular model experiment are actually supported by the simulation results.
DE: 1622 Earth system modeling (1225)
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1699 General or miscellaneous
SC: Global Climate Change [GC]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005