HR: 09:30h
AN: GC21A-07    [Abstracts]
TI: Detecting Tropical Precipitation Change in Global Warming
AU: * Munnich, M
EM: munnich@atmos.ucla.edu
AF: UCLA Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 405 Hilgard Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565 United States
AU: Neelin, D
EM: neelin@atmos.ucla.edu
AF: UCLA Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 405 Hilgard Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565 United States
AU: Su, H
EM: hui.su@jpl.nasa.gov
AF: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, 4800 Oak Grove Dr., Pasadena, ca 91109-8099 United States
AU: Meyerson, J
EM: hobo@atmos.ucla.edu
AF: UCLA Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 405 Hilgard Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565 United States
AU: Holloway, C
EM: chollow@atmos.ucla.edu
AF: UCLA Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 405 Hilgard Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1565 United States
AB: Climate model global warming simulations predict large-scale regional changes in tropical rainfall. Poor agreement on the spatial distribution of these still occurs in the latest generation models analyzed here. Such sensitivity appears consistent with current hypothesized physical mechanisms as does the occurence of strong local drying trends. Persistence of the spatial pattern within each model, with amplitude increasing with warming, suggests that observational detection of early large-scale tropical regional precipitation changes may be a predictor of larger future changes. Trends exist in current time series; we identify particular candidate regions that have model counterparts. Using the models as a proxy, we estimate the timing of skillful detection. For data availability since 1950, regions with early locally significant trends correlate skillfully with local late-century signal beginning this decade (median 2010) with range 2005-2035 (median 60% of models) for dry regions; 1979 start (satellite era) yields 0-2 decade delay. We find the early signal misses many regions, so skillful prediction of the whole late-century pattern begins in the 2030s.
DE: 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325)
DE: 1626 Global climate models (3337, 4928)
DE: 1637 Regional climate change
DE: 1655 Water cycles (1836)
SC: Global Climate Change [GC]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005