HR: 09:15h
AN: GC31A-06    [Abstracts]
TI: Introducing Teleconnections-based Water Supply Forecasting to Federal Forecasting Groups
AU: * Brekke, L D
EM: lbrekke@do.usbr.gov
AF: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Technical Service Center, Bldg 67, Rm 506 PO Box 25007 (D-8520), Denver, CO 80225-0007 United States
AB: Presentation will highlight development and deployment of an experimental teleconnections-based forecasting technology. Development was led by Reclamation's Research Office, in collaboration with internal (Boise regional office) and external forecast providers (NOAA-NWS CA-NV River Forecast Center, CA Department of Water Resources, and USDA-NRCS National Water and Climate Center), and research collaborators at NOAA Climate Diagnostic Center. The technology enables forecasting of April-July volumetric runoff in early October, November, and December. Currently, Reclamation's forecast providers offer earliest issues in January. The technology also offers added forecasting information for January, February, and March issues. Forecast improvements are enabled by consideration of antecedent, seasonal geopotential height conditions over the North Pacific (i.e. 700mb heights, or height difference between the 500mb and 700mb levels, estimated by NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis). Geopotential height "signals" were selected for their correlation with snowmelt volumes in Western U.S. Basins (CA, NV, OR, WAS, ID, and MT). Selected signals are spatially focused within 5x10 degrees, latitude-longitude. They occur at various lead-times, with earliest signals occurring during the previous summer. Signal locations vary from Northeast Pacific at shorter-leads to Subtropical and Northwest Pacific at longer-leads. Presentation will focus on a small set of basins, highlighting methods of signal selection, forecast model development, feedback from forecasting groups on the deployed technology, and possible next steps for usage and implementation
DE: 1616 Climate variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513)
DE: 1833 Hydroclimatology
DE: 1880 Water management (6334)
DE: 1884 Water supply
DE: 1899 General or miscellaneous
SC: Global Climate Change [GC]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005