HR: 1340h
AN: GC33B-1255    [Abstracts]
TI: The impact of climate change on the accuracy of streamflow predictions in California
AU: * Leonardson, R
EM: rebeccal@ce.berkeley.edu
AF: Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Berkeley, 625 Davis Hall #1710, Berkeley, CA 94611 United States
AU: Vicuna, S
EM: svicuna@berkeley.edu
AF: Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Berkeley, 625 Davis Hall #1710, Berkeley, CA 94611 United States
AU: Dracup, J A
EM: dracup@ce.berkeley.edu
AF: Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California Berkeley, 625 Davis Hall #1710, Berkeley, CA 94611 United States
AU: Dale, L L
EM: lldale@lbl.gov
AF: Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Mail Stop 90R4000, Berkeley, CA 94720 United States
AB: Every spring, California's Department of Water Resources (DWR) forecasts streamflow for the upcoming irrigation season (April-July) for rivers fed by the Western Sierra snowpack. The DWR forecasts influence water allocations, cropping strategy, and flood and drought management plans; forecast error can impact California's economy, especially the agricultural sector. Demand for water is expected to increase with population growth and climate change effects, in which the summers will be longer and hotter. At the same time, the percentage of precipitation falling as snow will shrink, and the snowpack is expected to melt earlier. We expect both of these factors to reduce forecast accuracy, as forecasting rainfall is less precise than measuring snowpack and because less of the snowpack will remain after April 1st. In this study, we examine relationships between historical forecast error and watershed elevation, snowpack size, snowmelt timing (as hydrograph center-of-mass), and other factors. We quantify expected future error using the predictions of multiple global circulation models and various emissions scenarios.
DE: 1630 Impacts of global change (1225)
DE: 1807 Climate impacts
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
SC: Global Climate Change [GC]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005