HR: 1340h
AN: GC33B-1256    [Abstracts]
TI: Utilizing Climate Based Flood Forecasting for Operational Rule Curve Development
AU: * Raff, D A
EM: draff@do.usbr.gov
AF: Bureau of Reclamation, Flood Hydrology Group (D-8530) PO Box 25007, Denver, CO 80225 United States
AB: Delaying the date of maximum flood control drawdown at large storage reservoirs will provide benefits to ecosystem health, power generation, and water supply reliability. This project focuses on using climate-based information to extend predictions of spring runoff to lead times greater than 10 days. Current operation within the Columbia River storage system relies on static rule curves for flood management. These rule curves are based on foreseeable weather and in an assumed climate thereafter based on historical conditions. Thus within a changing climate and without consideration of climate forecasts, these rule curves do not suggest the best possible operation of storage facilities. Associations are examined between large-scale patterns in winter/spring climate variability and the magnitude and timing of annual maximum floods. The metrics are assessed on the Columbia River Basin in Reclamation's Pacific Northwest Region, where application of this technology could have tremendous impacts on power plant operations and ecosystem dynamics.
DE: 1816 Estimation and forecasting
DE: 1821 Floods
SC: Global Climate Change [GC]
MN: Fall Meeting 2005